Electricity Grid Review 2025: Sweden
January 1 - December 31, 2024 vs 2025
Data coverage: 366 days (2024), 365 days (2025)
1. Electricity Price (Day-Ahead, EUR/MWh)
Correlation coefficient: 0.31 (2024), 0.11 (2025). Moderate correlation between price and carbon intensity.
1.1 Daily Price Extremes
Based on daily average prices
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Highest Daily Avg | €198.3 (Jan 05, 2024) | €167.7 (Nov 25, 2025) |
| Lowest Daily Avg | €-6.8 (Aug 11, 2024) | €-2.8 (Jun 29, 2025) |
| Negative Price Days | 10 | 1 |
| Negative Price Hours | 611 | 322 |
1.2 Hourly Price Extremes
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Highest Price | €560.5 (Dec 12, 2024 16:00) | €339.2 (Oct 14, 2025 16:00) |
| Lowest Price | €-55.3 (Aug 11, 2024 11:00) | €-24.6 (Jun 21, 2025 12:00) |
1.3 Days by Price Range
Based on daily average prices
| Range (€/MWh) | 2024 | 2025 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| €0-50 | 264 | 240 | -24 |
| €51-100 | 95 | 102 | +7 |
| €101-150 | 4 | 22 | +18 |
| €151-200 | 3 | 1 | -2 |
| €201+ | 0 | 0 | 0 |
1.4 Hours by Price Range
Based on hourly prices
| Range (€/MWh) | 2024 | 2025 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Negative | 611 | 322 | -289 |
| €0-50 | 5,700 | 5,741 | +41 |
| €51-100 | 2,002 | 2,001 | -1 |
| €101-150 | 302 | 536 | +234 |
| €151-200 | 40 | 115 | +75 |
| €201+ | 38 | 43 | +5 |
1.5 Average Price by Hour of Day
1.6 Price Distribution (Hourly)
322 hours with negative prices across 78 days. Most negative: €-24.6/MWh.
Average daily price swing: €71/MWh. Maximum single-day swing was €305/MWh on 2025-01-20 (low: €31, high: €336).
Notable monthly evolutions
Change: +224% vs 2024
1.7 Multi-Level Price Heatmap
Price Heatmap
€/MWh
hourly range: -25-339
Yearly
Monthly
Daily
Hourly
2. Load
2.1 Monthly Load
2.2 Average Load by Hour of Day
Peak demand at 16:00 (15.4 GW). Minimum at 02:00 (12.7 GW).
2.3 Weekday vs Weekend
2.4 Net Load Pattern (Duck Curve)
Evening ramp of 2.4 GW from belly (01:00) to evening peak (17:00). This requires flexible dispatchable generation or storage to meet rapidly increasing demand as solar output decreases.
2.5 Seasonal Net Load Patterns
The duck curve shape varies significantly by season due to changes in solar intensity and heating/cooling demand patterns.
Winter (Dec-Feb)
Belly: 11.6 GW @ 02:00 | Peak: 14.6 GW @ 17:00 | Ramp: 3.0 GW
Spring (Mar-May)
Belly: 9.3 GW @ 01:00 | Peak: 11.2 GW @ 17:00 | Ramp: 1.9 GW
Summer (Jun-Aug)
Belly: 7.6 GW @ 02:00 | Peak: 9.7 GW @ 17:00 | Ramp: 2.1 GW
Fall (Sep-Nov)
Belly: 9.1 GW @ 01:00 | Peak: 11.6 GW @ 17:00 | Ramp: 2.5 GW
Evening ramps are similar across seasons: winter 3.0 GW, summer 2.1 GW. The grid faces consistent ramping challenges year-round.
2.6 Peak & Minimum Demand Records (2025)
| Rank | Highest Load | Date | Lowest Load | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22.7 GW | 2025-01-13 08:00 | 8.5 GW | 2025-07-13 03:00 |
| 2 | 22.5 GW | 2025-01-13 07:00 | 8.7 GW | 2025-07-13 04:00 |
| 3 | 22.4 GW | 2025-01-13 09:00 | 8.7 GW | 2025-07-19 03:00 |
3. Production-Based vs Flow-Traced Carbon Intensity (gCO₂eq/kWh)
Production-based carbon intensity is 3.6g lower than flow-traced carbon intensity in 2024 (2.4g in 2025). This means Sweden's domestic production is slightly cleaner than consumed electricity.
3.1 Monthly Production Mix
3.2 Production Mix (Domestic Generation)
3.3 Flow-Traced Power Mix
3.5 Power Mix Comparison
Production vs Flow-Traced consumption by source
| Source | Prod 2024 | Flow-traced 2024 | Prod 2025 | Flow-traced 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hydro | 41.7% | 41.8% | 44.4% (+2.7pp) | 45.2% (+3.4pp) |
| Nuclear | 31.2% | 31.2% | 28.9% (-2.3pp) | 28.4% (-2.8pp) |
| Wind | 25.9% | 25.0% | 25.2% (-0.7pp) | 24.3% (-0.7pp) |
| Solar | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.5% (+0.3pp) | 1.7% (+0.4pp) |
| Biomass | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% (+0.0pp) | 0.2% (+0.0pp) |
| Gas | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% (+0.0pp) | 0.1% (-0.1pp) |
| Coal | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% (+0.0pp) | 0.1% (-0.1pp) |
3.6 Key Trend
Sweden's electricity consumption is dominated by ~45.2% hydro. Hydro saw the biggest growth from 41.8% to 45.2%.
4. Cross-Border Electricity Flows
Sweden exported a net 33.98 TWh in 2025.
4.1 2025 Gross Exports (Sweden → Neighbor)
Total electricity exported to each country — with average carbon intensity
4.2 2025 Gross Imports (Neighbor → Sweden)
Total electricity imported from each country — with average carbon intensity
4.3 Net Position by Neighbor (2025)
| Neighbor | Net (TWh) | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| DK | +10.68 | Net Exporter |
| FI | +9.93 | Net Exporter |
| LT | +7.82 | Net Exporter |
| NO | +7.31 | Net Exporter |
| PL | +6.54 | Net Exporter |
| DE | +2.44 | Net Exporter |
Positive = Sweden is net exporter to that neighbor. Negative = Sweden is net importer from that neighbor.
4.4 Flow Pattern by Hour of Day
Peak exports at 03:00 (4.5 GW avg).
4.5 Internal Flows Between Bidding Zones
Sweden consists of multiple bidding zones with internal transmission links. These flows represent electricity transfers between zones within the country.
| Link | Net Flow (TWh) | Avg CI (g/kWh) |
|---|---|---|
| SE-SE1 → SE-SE2 | +10.54 | 15 |
| SE-SE2 → SE-SE3 | +50.43 | 15 |
| SE-SE3 → SE-SE4 | +28.89 | 21 |
| SE-SE4 → SE-SE3 | -28.89 | 21 |
Positive = net flow in the direction indicated. These are internal transfers and do not count as imports/exports.
5. Carbon Intensity (gCO₂eq/kWh)
5.1 Daily Records
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Lowest Carbon Intensity | 13.1 g (Nov 03, 2024) | 14.2 g (Jul 31, 2025) |
| Lowest Fossil % | 0.0% (Sep 12, 2024) | 0.0% (Mar 03, 2025) |
| Highest Carbon Intensity | 66.4 g (Jan 06, 2024) | 38.5 g (Nov 18, 2025) |
| Highest Fossil % | 5.2% (Jan 06, 2024) | 2.1% (Nov 18, 2025) |
5.2 Hourly Records
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Lowest Carbon Intensity | 11.3 g (Sep 23, 2024 03:00) | 11.6 g (Jul 30, 2025 22:00) |
| Highest Carbon Intensity | 71.3 g (Jan 7, 2024 03:00) | 57.6 g (Nov 18, 2025 17:00) |
5.3 Days Below Thresholds
| Threshold | 2024 | 2025 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| < 100 gCO₂eq/kWh | 366 | 365 | -1 |
| < 200 gCO₂eq/kWh | 366 | 365 | -1 |
| < 300 gCO₂eq/kWh | 366 | 365 | -1 |
5.4 Hours Below Thresholds
| Threshold | 2024 | 2025 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| < 100 gCO₂eq/kWh | 8,784 | 8,760 | -24 |
| < 200 gCO₂eq/kWh | 8,784 | 8,760 | -24 |
| < 300 gCO₂eq/kWh | 8,784 | 8,760 | -24 |
5.5 Average Carbon Intensity by Hour of Day
5.6 Seasonal Carbon Intensity Patterns
Carbon intensity daily patterns shift with seasonal changes in renewable generation and electricity demand.
Winter (Dec-Feb)
Peak: 23 g @ 10:00 | Trough: 20 g @ 23:00 | Spread: 3 g
Spring (Mar-May)
Peak: 32 g @ 11:00 | Trough: 19 g @ 22:00 | Spread: 13 g
Summer (Jun-Aug)
Peak: 30 g @ 11:00 | Trough: 15 g @ 20:00 | Spread: 15 g
Fall (Sep-Nov)
Peak: 25 g @ 11:00 | Trough: 17 g @ 00:00 | Spread: 7 g
Summer offers the lowest carbon intensity, with midday troughs reaching 15 gCO₂/kWh—25% lower than winter. Summer peaks reach 30 gCO₂/kWh. Scheduling flexible loads during seasonal low-carbon windows maximizes emission reductions.
5.7 Carbon Intensity Distribution (Hourly)
Notable monthly evolutions
Change: -32% vs Jan 2024
Change: +27% vs Aug 2024
Change: +24% vs Sep 2024
Change: +29% vs Oct 2024
663 hours with both low price (<€17/MWh) and low carbon intensity (<17 gCO₂eq/kWh).
5.8 Multi-Level Carbon Intensity Heatmap
Carbon Intensity Heatmap
gCO₂eq/kWh
hourly range: 12-58
Yearly
Monthly
Daily
Hourly
6. Renewable & Carbon-Free Energy (Flow-Traced)
Includes electricity exchanged with neighboring grids
6.1 Days Above Thresholds
Days with carbon-free share above threshold
| Threshold | 2024 | 2025 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≥50% carbon-free | 366 | 365 | -1 |
| ≥60% carbon-free | 358 | 365 | +7 |
| ≥70% carbon-free | 168 | 276 | +108 |
6.2 Hours Above Thresholds
Hours with carbon-free share above threshold
| Threshold | 2024 | 2025 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≥50% carbon-free | 8,781 | 8,760 | -21 |
| ≥60% carbon-free | 8,333 | 8,760 | +427 |
| ≥70% carbon-free | 4,025 | 6,415 | +2,390 |
6.3 Multi-Level Carbon-Free % Heatmap
Carbon-Free % Heatmap
%
hourly range: 96-100
Yearly
Monthly
Daily
Hourly
