Electricity Grid Review 2025: Romania
January 1 - December 31, 2024 vs 2025
Data coverage: 366 days (2024), 365 days (2025)
1. Electricity Price (Day-Ahead, EUR/MWh)
Correlation coefficient: -0.55 (2024), -0.50 (2025). Strong negative correlation - higher renewable generation = lower prices, reflecting the merit order effect.
1.1 Daily Price Extremes
Based on daily average prices
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Highest Daily Avg | €349.7 (Dec 12, 2024) | €253.2 (Jan 15, 2025) |
| Lowest Daily Avg | €19.2 (Jan 01, 2024) | €40.9 (May 04, 2025) |
| Negative Price Days | 0 | 0 |
| Negative Price Hours | 85 | 187 |
1.2 Hourly Price Extremes
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Highest Price | €1021.6 (Sep 3, 2024 17:00) | €603.3 (Jan 20, 2025 16:00) |
| Lowest Price | €-106.4 (May 1, 2024 12:00) | €-100.6 (May 1, 2025 12:00) |
1.3 Days by Price Range
Based on daily average prices
| Range (€/MWh) | 2024 | 2025 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| €0-50 | 21 | 3 | -18 |
| €51-100 | 178 | 134 | -44 |
| €101-150 | 110 | 190 | +80 |
| €151-200 | 31 | 32 | +1 |
| €201+ | 26 | 6 | -20 |
1.4 Hours by Price Range
Based on hourly prices
| Range (€/MWh) | 2024 | 2025 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Negative | 85 | 187 | +102 |
| €0-50 | 1,068 | 827 | -241 |
| €51-100 | 3,988 | 2,724 | -1,264 |
| €101-150 | 2,402 | 3,409 | +1,007 |
| €151-200 | 632 | 1,005 | +373 |
| €201+ | 488 | 462 | -26 |
1.5 Average Price by Hour of Day
1.6 Price Distribution (Hourly)
187 hours with negative prices across 45 days. Most negative: €-100.6/MWh.
Average daily price swing: €165/MWh. Maximum single-day swing was €489/MWh on 2025-01-20 (low: €114, high: €603).
Notable monthly evolutions
Change: +124% vs 2024
1.7 Multi-Level Price Heatmap
Price Heatmap
€/MWh
hourly range: -101-603
Yearly
Monthly
Daily
Hourly
2. Load
2.1 Monthly Load
2.2 Average Load by Hour of Day
Peak demand at 17:00 (7.1 GW). Minimum at 01:00 (5.1 GW).
2.3 Weekday vs Weekend
2.4 Net Load Pattern (Duck Curve)
Evening ramp of 2.3 GW from belly (10:00) to evening peak (17:00). This requires flexible dispatchable generation or storage to meet rapidly increasing demand as solar output decreases.
2.5 Seasonal Net Load Patterns
The duck curve shape varies significantly by season due to changes in solar intensity and heating/cooling demand patterns.
Winter (Dec-Feb)
Belly: 4.7 GW @ 01:00 | Peak: 6.8 GW @ 17:00 | Ramp: 2.1 GW
Spring (Mar-May)
Belly: 3.6 GW @ 10:00 | Peak: 6.0 GW @ 18:00 | Ramp: 2.4 GW
Summer (Jun-Aug)
Belly: 3.4 GW @ 09:00 | Peak: 6.3 GW @ 18:00 | Ramp: 2.9 GW
Fall (Sep-Nov)
Belly: 4.1 GW @ 10:00 | Peak: 6.3 GW @ 17:00 | Ramp: 2.2 GW
Evening ramps are similar across seasons: winter 2.1 GW, summer 2.9 GW. The grid faces consistent ramping challenges year-round.
2.6 Peak & Minimum Demand Records (2025)
| Rank | Highest Load | Date | Lowest Load | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8.9 GW | 2025-10-06 16:00 | 2.4 GW | 2025-04-20 11:00 |
| 2 | 8.9 GW | 2025-11-24 16:00 | 2.4 GW | 2025-04-20 10:00 |
| 3 | 8.8 GW | 2025-10-06 15:00 | 2.5 GW | 2025-04-20 12:00 |
3. Production-Based vs Flow-Traced Carbon Intensity (gCO₂eq/kWh)
Production-based carbon intensity is 1.8g lower than flow-traced carbon intensity in 2024 (2.7g in 2025). This means Romania's domestic production is slightly cleaner than consumed electricity.
3.1 Monthly Production Mix
3.2 Production Mix (Domestic Generation)
3.3 Flow-Traced Power Mix
3.5 Power Mix Comparison
Production vs Flow-Traced consumption by source
| Source | Prod 2024 | Flow-traced 2024 | Prod 2025 | Flow-traced 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nuclear | 21.1% | 23.4% | 21.2% (+0.1pp) | 24.5% (+1.1pp) |
| Hydro | 27.9% | 26.0% | 25.5% (-2.4pp) | 23.2% (-2.8pp) |
| Gas | 20.1% | 18.8% | 20.1% (+0.0pp) | 18.7% (-0.1pp) |
| Coal | 13.6% | 15.4% | 13.8% (+0.2pp) | 15.3% (-0.1pp) |
| Wind | 12.4% | 10.6% | 12.3% (-0.1pp) | 10.5% (-0.1pp) |
| Solar | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.7% (+1.6pp) | 6.3% (+1.7pp) |
| Biomass | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.9% (+0.0pp) | 1.1% (+0.1pp) |
| Battery | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% (+0.4pp) | 0.3% (+0.3pp) |
| Hydro Storage | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% (+0.0pp) | 0.2% (+0.1pp) |
3.6 Key Trend
Romania's electricity consumption is led by ~24.5% nuclear. Solar saw the biggest growth from 4.6% to 6.3%.
4. Cross-Border Electricity Flows
Romania imported a net 4.17 TWh in 2025.
4.1 2025 Gross Exports (Romania → Neighbor)
Total electricity exported to each country — with average carbon intensity
4.2 2025 Gross Imports (Neighbor → Romania)
Total electricity imported from each country — with average carbon intensity
4.3 Net Position by Neighbor (2025)
| Neighbor | Net (TWh) | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| BG | -0.33 | Net Importer |
| RS | -0.63 | Net Importer |
| UA | -2.44 | Net Importer |
| HU | -3.58 | Net Importer |
Positive = Romania is net exporter to that neighbor. Negative = Romania is net importer from that neighbor.
4.4 Flow Pattern by Hour of Day
Peak imports at 17:00 (1.2 GW avg).
5. Carbon Intensity (gCO₂eq/kWh)
5.1 Daily Records
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Lowest Carbon Intensity | 150.4 g (Apr 30, 2024) | 142.6 g (May 03, 2025) |
| Lowest Fossil % | 15.3% (Apr 30, 2024) | 14.4% (May 03, 2025) |
| Highest Carbon Intensity | 395.9 g (Nov 15, 2024) | 412.4 g (Jan 20, 2025) |
| Highest Fossil % | 47.1% (Nov 14, 2024) | 47.8% (Jan 20, 2025) |
5.2 Hourly Records
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Lowest Carbon Intensity | 126.9 g (Apr 30, 2024 13:00) | 113.1 g (Apr 22, 2025 09:00) |
| Highest Carbon Intensity | 453.4 g (Jul 20, 2024 21:00) | 440.5 g (Jan 24, 2025 05:00) |
5.3 Days Below Thresholds
| Threshold | 2024 | 2025 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| < 100 gCO₂eq/kWh | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| < 200 gCO₂eq/kWh | 20 | 19 | -1 |
| < 300 gCO₂eq/kWh | 153 | 185 | +32 |
5.4 Hours Below Thresholds
| Threshold | 2024 | 2025 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| < 100 gCO₂eq/kWh | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| < 200 gCO₂eq/kWh | 575 | 630 | +55 |
| < 300 gCO₂eq/kWh | 4,149 | 4,340 | +191 |
5.5 Average Carbon Intensity by Hour of Day
5.6 Seasonal Carbon Intensity Patterns
Carbon intensity daily patterns shift with seasonal changes in renewable generation and electricity demand.
Winter (Dec-Feb)
Peak: 362 g @ 15:00 | Trough: 331 g @ 10:00 | Spread: 31 g
Spring (Mar-May)
Peak: 265 g @ 03:00 | Trough: 213 g @ 09:00 | Spread: 52 g
Summer (Jun-Aug)
Peak: 321 g @ 01:00 | Trough: 250 g @ 10:00 | Spread: 71 g
Fall (Sep-Nov)
Peak: 331 g @ 00:00 | Trough: 285 g @ 10:00 | Spread: 46 g
Summer offers the lowest carbon intensity, with midday troughs reaching 250 gCO₂/kWh—24% lower than winter. Scheduling flexible loads during seasonal low-carbon windows maximizes emission reductions.
5.7 Carbon Intensity Distribution (Hourly)
Notable monthly evolutions
Change: +27% vs Feb 2024
1,154 hours with both low price (<€84/MWh) and low carbon intensity (<255 gCO₂eq/kWh).
5.8 Multi-Level Carbon Intensity Heatmap
Carbon Intensity Heatmap
gCO₂eq/kWh
hourly range: 113-441
Yearly
Monthly
Daily
Hourly
6. Renewable & Carbon-Free Energy (Flow-Traced)
Includes electricity exchanged with neighboring grids
6.1 Days Above Thresholds
Days with carbon-free share above threshold
| Threshold | 2024 | 2025 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≥50% carbon-free | 71 | 63 | -8 |
| ≥60% carbon-free | 8 | 4 | -4 |
| ≥70% carbon-free | 0 | 0 | 0 |
6.2 Hours Above Thresholds
Hours with carbon-free share above threshold
| Threshold | 2024 | 2025 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≥50% carbon-free | 1,943 | 1,791 | -152 |
| ≥60% carbon-free | 261 | 367 | +106 |
| ≥70% carbon-free | 19 | 14 | -5 |
6.3 Multi-Level Carbon-Free % Heatmap
Carbon-Free % Heatmap
%
hourly range: 49-89
Yearly
Monthly
Daily
Hourly
