Electricity Grid Review 2025: Portugal
January 1 - December 31, 2024 vs 2025
Data coverage: 366 days (2024), 365 days (2025)
1. Electricity Price (Day-Ahead, EUR/MWh)
Correlation coefficient: -0.81 (2024), -0.37 (2025). Strong negative correlation - higher renewable generation = lower prices, reflecting the merit order effect.
1.1 Daily Price Extremes
Based on daily average prices
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Highest Daily Avg | €148.9 (Dec 12, 2024) | €145.0 (Feb 04, 2025) |
| Lowest Daily Avg | €0.1 (Apr 05, 2024) | €1.3 (Apr 19, 2025) |
| Negative Price Days | 0 | 0 |
| Negative Price Hours | 194 | 171 |
1.2 Hourly Price Extremes
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Highest Price | €193.0 (Nov 5, 2024 17:00) | €240.0 (Feb 4, 2025 19:00) |
| Lowest Price | €-2.0 (Jun 16, 2024 13:00) | €-5.0 (Apr 27, 2025 09:00) |
1.3 Days by Price Range
Based on daily average prices
| Range (€/MWh) | 2024 | 2025 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| €0-50 | 138 | 128 | -10 |
| €51-100 | 160 | 179 | +19 |
| €101-150 | 68 | 58 | -10 |
| €151-200 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| €201+ | 0 | 0 | 0 |
1.4 Hours by Price Range
Based on hourly prices
| Range (€/MWh) | 2024 | 2025 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Negative | 194 | 171 | -23 |
| €0-50 | 2,835 | 2,906 | +71 |
| €51-100 | 2,956 | 2,691 | -265 |
| €101-150 | 2,015 | 2,177 | +162 |
| €151-200 | 171 | 253 | +82 |
| €201+ | 0 | 20 | +20 |
1.5 Average Price by Hour of Day
1.6 Price Distribution (Hourly)
171 hours with negative prices across 41 days. Most negative: €-5.0/MWh.
Average daily price swing: €96/MWh. Maximum single-day swing was €204/MWh on 2025-10-01 (low: €14, high: €218).
Notable monthly evolutions
Change: +166% vs 2024
1.7 Multi-Level Price Heatmap
Price Heatmap
€/MWh
hourly range: -5-240
Yearly
Monthly
Daily
Hourly
2. Load
2.1 Monthly Load
2.2 Average Load by Hour of Day
Peak demand at 19:00 (7.3 GW). Minimum at 03:00 (4.8 GW).
2.3 Weekday vs Weekend
2.4 Net Load Pattern (Duck Curve)
Evening ramp of 3.4 GW from belly (13:00) to evening peak (19:00). This requires flexible dispatchable generation or storage to meet rapidly increasing demand as solar output decreases.
2.5 Seasonal Net Load Patterns
The duck curve shape varies significantly by season due to changes in solar intensity and heating/cooling demand patterns.
Winter (Dec-Feb)
Belly: 3.1 GW @ 03:00 | Peak: 6.4 GW @ 19:00 | Ramp: 3.4 GW
Spring (Mar-May)
Belly: 2.4 GW @ 13:00 | Peak: 5.7 GW @ 19:00 | Ramp: 3.2 GW
Summer (Jun-Aug)
Belly: 1.9 GW @ 12:00 | Peak: 5.5 GW @ 19:00 | Ramp: 3.6 GW
Fall (Sep-Nov)
Belly: 2.1 GW @ 12:00 | Peak: 5.5 GW @ 19:00 | Ramp: 3.4 GW
Evening ramps are similar across seasons: winter 3.4 GW, summer 3.6 GW. The grid faces consistent ramping challenges year-round.
2.6 Peak & Minimum Demand Records (2025)
| Rank | Highest Load | Date | Lowest Load | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9.3 GW | 2025-12-03 19:00 | 0.1 GW | 2025-04-28 12:00 |
| 2 | 9.3 GW | 2025-12-03 20:00 | 0.1 GW | 2025-04-28 11:00 |
| 3 | 9.2 GW | 2025-01-16 19:00 | 0.1 GW | 2025-04-28 13:00 |
3. Production-Based vs Flow-Traced Carbon Intensity (gCO₂eq/kWh)
Production-based carbon intensity is 3.6g lower than flow-traced carbon intensity in 2024 (1.5g in 2025). This means Portugal's domestic production is slightly cleaner than consumed electricity.
3.1 Monthly Production Mix
3.2 Production Mix (Domestic Generation)
3.3 Flow-Traced Power Mix
3.4 Import/Export Impact on Mix
Portugal produces no nuclear power locally, but ~4% of consumed electricity comes from nuclear imports. Hydro Storage makes up ~10% of consumed electricity but only ~5% of local production (difference from imports).
3.5 Power Mix Comparison
Production vs Flow-Traced consumption by source
| Source | Prod 2024 | Flow-traced 2024 | Prod 2025 | Flow-traced 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind | 34.0% | 29.0% | 30.3% (-3.7pp) | 26.3% (-2.7pp) |
| Hydro | 28.8% | 23.0% | 27.7% (-1.1pp) | 22.9% (-0.1pp) |
| Gas | 11.8% | 12.2% | 16.9% (+5.1pp) | 16.4% (+4.2pp) |
| Solar | 11.8% | 13.9% | 13.8% (+2.0pp) | 14.9% (+1.0pp) |
| Hydro Storage | 6.0% | 10.1% | 4.9% (-1.1pp) | 10.2% (+0.1pp) |
| Biomass | 7.6% | 6.0% | 6.3% (-1.3pp) | 5.2% (-0.8pp) |
| Nuclear | 0.0% | 5.4% | 0.0% (+0.0pp) | 3.9% (-1.5pp) |
| Coal | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% (+0.0pp) | 0.1% (-0.2pp) |
3.6 Key Trend
Portugal's electricity consumption is led by ~26.3% wind. Gas saw the biggest growth from 12.2% to 16.4%.
4. Cross-Border Electricity Flows
Portugal imported a net 8.97 TWh in 2025.
4.1 2025 Gross Exports (Portugal → Neighbor)
Total electricity exported to each country — with average carbon intensity
4.2 2025 Gross Imports (Neighbor → Portugal)
Total electricity imported from each country — with average carbon intensity
4.3 Net Position by Neighbor (2025)
| Neighbor | Net (TWh) | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| ES | -17.49 | Net Importer |
Positive = Portugal is net exporter to that neighbor. Negative = Portugal is net importer from that neighbor.
4.4 Flow Pattern by Hour of Day
Peak exports at 19:00 (0.1 GW avg). Peak imports at 12:00 (2.2 GW avg).
5. Carbon Intensity (gCO₂eq/kWh)
5.1 Daily Records
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Lowest Carbon Intensity | 35.3 g (Feb 25, 2024) | 45.5 g (Nov 30, 2025) |
| Lowest Fossil % | 1.9% (Feb 25, 2024) | 3.0% (Nov 30, 2025) |
| Highest Carbon Intensity | 244.1 g (Dec 13, 2024) | 214.1 g (Oct 15, 2025) |
| Highest Fossil % | 44.4% (Jan 09, 2024) | 37.2% (Oct 15, 2025) |
5.2 Hourly Records
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Lowest Carbon Intensity | 32.3 g (Feb 25, 2024 16:00) | 25.6 g (Dec 2, 2025 17:00) |
| Highest Carbon Intensity | 312.0 g (Dec 13, 2024 04:00) | 325.1 g (Oct 15, 2025 02:00) |
5.3 Days Below Thresholds
| Threshold | 2024 | 2025 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| < 100 gCO₂eq/kWh | 201 | 108 | -93 |
| < 200 gCO₂eq/kWh | 360 | 361 | +1 |
| < 300 gCO₂eq/kWh | 366 | 365 | -1 |
5.4 Hours Below Thresholds
| Threshold | 2024 | 2025 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| < 100 gCO₂eq/kWh | 4,938 | 2,735 | -2203 |
| < 200 gCO₂eq/kWh | 8,551 | 8,422 | -129 |
| < 300 gCO₂eq/kWh | 8,781 | 8,755 | -26 |
5.5 Average Carbon Intensity by Hour of Day
5.6 Seasonal Carbon Intensity Patterns
Carbon intensity daily patterns shift with seasonal changes in renewable generation and electricity demand.
Winter (Dec-Feb)
Peak: 116 g @ 16:00 | Trough: 94 g @ 07:00 | Spread: 22 g
Spring (Mar-May)
Peak: 99 g @ 17:00 | Trough: 86 g @ 05:00 | Spread: 13 g
Summer (Jun-Aug)
Peak: 177 g @ 02:00 | Trough: 118 g @ 12:00 | Spread: 59 g
Fall (Sep-Nov)
Peak: 167 g @ 02:00 | Trough: 117 g @ 11:00 | Spread: 50 g
Winter offers the lowest carbon intensity troughs at 94 gCO₂/kWh. Summer peaks reach 177 gCO₂/kWh. Scheduling flexible loads during seasonal low-carbon windows maximizes emission reductions.
5.7 Carbon Intensity Distribution (Hourly)
Notable monthly evolutions
Change: +23% vs Feb 2024
Change: +26% vs Apr 2024
Change: +60% vs May 2024
Change: +62% vs Jun 2024
Change: +25% vs Jul 2024
Change: +22% vs Aug 2024
Change: +62% vs Oct 2024
Change: -34% vs Dec 2024
717 hours with both low price (<€26/MWh) and low carbon intensity (<93 gCO₂eq/kWh).
5.8 Multi-Level Carbon Intensity Heatmap
Carbon Intensity Heatmap
gCO₂eq/kWh
hourly range: 26-325
Yearly
Monthly
Daily
Hourly
6. Renewable & Carbon-Free Energy (Flow-Traced)
Includes electricity exchanged with neighboring grids
6.1 Days Above Thresholds
Days with carbon-free share above threshold
| Threshold | 2024 | 2025 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≥50% carbon-free | 366 | 365 | -1 |
| ≥60% carbon-free | 354 | 359 | +5 |
| ≥70% carbon-free | 323 | 284 | -39 |
6.2 Hours Above Thresholds
Hours with carbon-free share above threshold
| Threshold | 2024 | 2025 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≥50% carbon-free | 8,657 | 8,621 | -36 |
| ≥60% carbon-free | 8,358 | 8,176 | -182 |
| ≥70% carbon-free | 7,333 | 6,911 | -422 |
6.3 Multi-Level Renewable % Heatmap
Renewable % Heatmap
%
hourly range: 27-100
Yearly
Monthly
Daily
Hourly
