Electricity Grid Review 2025: Poland
January 1 - December 31, 2024 vs 2025
Data coverage: 366 days (2024), 365 days (2025)
1. Electricity Price (Day-Ahead, EUR/MWh)
Correlation coefficient: -0.70 (2024), -0.77 (2025). Strong negative correlation - higher renewable generation = lower prices, reflecting the merit order effect.
1.1 Daily Price Extremes
Based on daily average prices
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Highest Daily Avg | €203.9 (Nov 06, 2024) | €273.7 (Nov 25, 2025) |
| Lowest Daily Avg | €16.9 (Oct 13, 2024) | €2.9 (Jan 01, 2025) |
| Negative Price Days | 0 | 0 |
| Negative Price Hours | 197 | 311 |
1.2 Hourly Price Extremes
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Highest Price | €630.2 (Nov 6, 2024 16:00) | €471.3 (Jul 1, 2025 18:00) |
| Lowest Price | €-61.6 (Jul 28, 2024 12:00) | €-132.9 (Jun 19, 2025 12:00) |
1.3 Days by Price Range
Based on daily average prices
| Range (€/MWh) | 2024 | 2025 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| €0-50 | 15 | 10 | -5 |
| €51-100 | 197 | 138 | -59 |
| €101-150 | 135 | 203 | +68 |
| €151-200 | 18 | 10 | -8 |
| €201+ | 1 | 4 | +3 |
1.4 Hours by Price Range
Based on hourly prices
| Range (€/MWh) | 2024 | 2025 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Negative | 197 | 311 | +114 |
| €0-50 | 653 | 611 | -42 |
| €51-100 | 4,595 | 2,647 | -1,948 |
| €101-150 | 2,604 | 4,140 | +1,536 |
| €151-200 | 429 | 723 | +294 |
| €201+ | 287 | 287 | 0 |
1.5 Average Price by Hour of Day
1.6 Price Distribution (Hourly)
311 hours with negative prices across 70 days. Most negative: €-132.9/MWh.
Average daily price swing: €144/MWh. Maximum single-day swing was €464/MWh on 2025-07-01 (low: €7, high: €471).
Notable monthly evolutions
Change: +76% vs 2024
1.7 Multi-Level Price Heatmap
Price Heatmap
€/MWh
hourly range: -133-471
Yearly
Monthly
Daily
Hourly
2. Load
2.1 Monthly Load
2.2 Average Load by Hour of Day
Peak demand at 17:00 (20.4 GW). Minimum at 01:00 (14.7 GW).
2.3 Weekday vs Weekend
2.4 Net Load Pattern (Duck Curve)
Evening ramp of 5.6 GW from belly (10:00) to evening peak (18:00). This requires flexible dispatchable generation or storage to meet rapidly increasing demand as solar output decreases.
2.5 Seasonal Net Load Patterns
The duck curve shape varies significantly by season due to changes in solar intensity and heating/cooling demand patterns.
Winter (Dec-Feb)
Belly: 12.9 GW @ 01:00 | Peak: 18.4 GW @ 17:00 | Ramp: 5.6 GW
Spring (Mar-May)
Belly: 9.3 GW @ 11:00 | Peak: 17.0 GW @ 18:00 | Ramp: 7.7 GW
Summer (Jun-Aug)
Belly: 8.2 GW @ 11:00 | Peak: 16.0 GW @ 18:00 | Ramp: 7.7 GW
Fall (Sep-Nov)
Belly: 11.6 GW @ 01:00 | Peak: 17.4 GW @ 17:00 | Ramp: 5.7 GW
Summer shows the most pronounced duck curve with an evening ramp of 7.7 GW, 2.1 GW larger than winter (5.6 GW). This reflects higher solar penetration in summer months creating steeper ramping requirements.
2.6 Peak & Minimum Demand Records (2025)
| Rank | Highest Load | Date | Lowest Load | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 26.1 GW | 2025-11-24 11:00 | 10.6 GW | 2025-04-21 03:00 |
| 2 | 26.0 GW | 2025-11-24 10:00 | 10.7 GW | 2025-04-21 00:00 |
| 3 | 25.9 GW | 2025-11-24 09:00 | 10.7 GW | 2025-04-21 01:00 |
3. Production-Based vs Flow-Traced Carbon Intensity (gCO₂eq/kWh)
Production-based carbon intensity is 36.4g higher than flow-traced carbon intensity in 2024 (36.8g in 2025). This means Poland's imports are cleaner than domestic production, lowering the carbon footprint of consumed electricity.
3.1 Monthly Production Mix
3.2 Production Mix (Domestic Generation)
3.3 Flow-Traced Power Mix
3.5 Power Mix Comparison
Production vs Flow-Traced consumption by source
| Source | Prod 2024 | Flow-traced 2024 | Prod 2025 | Flow-traced 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coal | 57.3% | 54.2% | 54.2% (-3.1pp) | 50.6% (-3.6pp) |
| Wind | 15.3% | 16.2% | 14.7% (-0.6pp) | 15.9% (-0.3pp) |
| Gas | 11.4% | 11.3% | 14.7% (+3.3pp) | 14.4% (+3.1pp) |
| Solar | 11.2% | 10.7% | 12.6% (+1.4pp) | 11.8% (+1.1pp) |
| Biomass | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.9% (+0.4pp) | 2.3% (+0.4pp) |
| Hydro | 1.2% | 2.3% | 1.0% (-0.2pp) | 2.1% (-0.2pp) |
| Nuclear | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.0% (+0.0pp) | 1.1% (-0.1pp) |
| Oil | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.0% (-0.3pp) | 0.9% (-0.3pp) |
| Hydro Storage | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.0% (-0.7pp) | 0.8% (+0.0pp) |
3.6 Key Trend
Poland's electricity consumption is dominated by ~50.6% coal. Gas saw the biggest growth from 11.3% to 14.4%.
4. Cross-Border Electricity Flows
Poland imported a net 0.85 TWh in 2025.
4.1 2025 Gross Exports (Poland → Neighbor)
Total electricity exported to each country — with average carbon intensity
4.2 2025 Gross Imports (Neighbor → Poland)
Total electricity imported from each country — with average carbon intensity
4.3 Net Position by Neighbor (2025)
| Neighbor | Net (TWh) | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| CZ | +6.25 | Net Exporter |
| SK | +4.67 | Net Exporter |
| UA | +1.10 | Net Exporter |
| LT | -0.38 | Net Importer |
| DE | -9.20 | Net Importer |
| SE | -13.07 | Net Importer |
Positive = Poland is net exporter to that neighbor. Negative = Poland is net importer from that neighbor.
4.4 Flow Pattern by Hour of Day
Peak exports at 09:00 (1.0 GW avg). Peak imports at 18:00 (1.4 GW avg).
5. Carbon Intensity (gCO₂eq/kWh)
5.1 Daily Records
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Lowest Carbon Intensity | 485.3 g (Feb 04, 2024) | 474.2 g (Jun 23, 2025) |
| Lowest Fossil % | 45.4% (Feb 04, 2024) | 45.9% (Jun 23, 2025) |
| Highest Carbon Intensity | 918.8 g (Dec 11, 2024) | 886.2 g (Jan 21, 2025) |
| Highest Fossil % | 90.8% (Nov 12, 2024) | 88.1% (Jan 21, 2025) |
5.2 Hourly Records
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Lowest Carbon Intensity | 351.3 g (May 17, 2024 09:00) | 318.2 g (Jun 30, 2025 10:00) |
| Highest Carbon Intensity | 985.0 g (Apr 22, 2024 18:00) | 941.4 g (Feb 2, 2025 05:00) |
5.3 Days Below Thresholds
| Threshold | 2024 | 2025 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| < 100 gCO₂eq/kWh | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| < 200 gCO₂eq/kWh | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| < 300 gCO₂eq/kWh | 0 | 0 | 0 |
5.4 Hours Below Thresholds
| Threshold | 2024 | 2025 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| < 100 gCO₂eq/kWh | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| < 200 gCO₂eq/kWh | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| < 300 gCO₂eq/kWh | 0 | 0 | 0 |
5.5 Average Carbon Intensity by Hour of Day
5.6 Seasonal Carbon Intensity Patterns
Carbon intensity daily patterns shift with seasonal changes in renewable generation and electricity demand.
Winter (Dec-Feb)
Peak: 780 g @ 15:00 | Trough: 684 g @ 10:00 | Spread: 96 g
Spring (Mar-May)
Peak: 745 g @ 19:00 | Trough: 487 g @ 10:00 | Spread: 258 g
Summer (Jun-Aug)
Peak: 743 g @ 20:00 | Trough: 456 g @ 10:00 | Spread: 287 g
Fall (Sep-Nov)
Peak: 747 g @ 16:00 | Trough: 576 g @ 10:00 | Spread: 171 g
Summer offers the lowest carbon intensity, with midday troughs reaching 456 gCO₂/kWh—33% lower than winter. Scheduling flexible loads during seasonal low-carbon windows maximizes emission reductions.
5.7 Carbon Intensity Distribution (Hourly)
1,622 hours with both low price (<€88/MWh) and low carbon intensity (<580 gCO₂eq/kWh).
5.8 Multi-Level Carbon Intensity Heatmap
Carbon Intensity Heatmap
gCO₂eq/kWh
hourly range: 318-941
Yearly
Monthly
Daily
Hourly
6. Renewable & Carbon-Free Energy (Flow-Traced)
Includes electricity exchanged with neighboring grids
6.1 Days Above Thresholds
Days with carbon-free share above threshold
| Threshold | 2024 | 2025 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≥50% carbon-free | 8 | 4 | -4 |
| ≥60% carbon-free | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| ≥70% carbon-free | 0 | 0 | 0 |
6.2 Hours Above Thresholds
Hours with carbon-free share above threshold
| Threshold | 2024 | 2025 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≥50% carbon-free | 910 | 1,259 | +349 |
| ≥60% carbon-free | 135 | 170 | +35 |
| ≥70% carbon-free | 0 | 0 | 0 |
6.3 Multi-Level Renewable % Heatmap
Renewable % Heatmap
%
hourly range: 6-70
Yearly
Monthly
Daily
Hourly
