Electricity Grid Review 2025: Poland

January 1 - December 31, 2024 vs 2025

Data coverage: 366 days (2024), 365 days (2025)

1. Electricity Price (Day-Ahead, EUR/MWh)

Mean 2024

€97.5

Mean 2025

€105.8

+€8.3

Monthly Average Day-Ahead Price

EUR/MWh

20242025

Price-Carbon Correlation

Correlation coefficient: -0.70 (2024), -0.77 (2025). Strong negative correlation - higher renewable generation = lower prices, reflecting the merit order effect.

1.1 Daily Price Extremes

Based on daily average prices

Metric	2024	2025
Highest Daily Avg	€203.9 (Nov 06, 2024)	€273.7 (Nov 25, 2025)
Lowest Daily Avg	€16.9 (Oct 13, 2024)	€2.9 (Jan 01, 2025)
Negative Price Days	0	0
Negative Price Hours	197	311

1.2 Hourly Price Extremes

Metric	2024	2025
Highest Price	€630.2 (Nov 6, 2024 16:00)	€471.3 (Jul 1, 2025 18:00)
Lowest Price	€-61.6 (Jul 28, 2024 12:00)	€-132.9 (Jun 19, 2025 12:00)

1.3 Days by Price Range

Based on daily average prices

Range (€/MWh)	2024	2025	Δ
€0-50	15	10	-5
€51-100	197	138	-59
€101-150	135	203	+68
€151-200	18	10	-8
€201+	1	4	+3

1.4 Hours by Price Range

Based on hourly prices

Range (€/MWh)	2024	2025	Δ
Negative	197	311	+114
€0-50	653	611	-42
€51-100	4,595	2,647	-1,948
€101-150	2,604	4,140	+1,536
€151-200	429	723	+294
€201+	287	287	0

1.5 Average Price by Hour of Day

2025 Average Price by Hour

€/MWh

1.6 Price Distribution (Hourly)

Price Distribution

Number of hours at each level

20242025

Negative Price Events

311 hours with negative prices across 70 days. Most negative: €-132.9/MWh.

Intraday Price Volatility

Average daily price swing: €144/MWh. Maximum single-day swing was €464/MWh on 2025-07-01 (low: €7, high: €471).

Notable monthly evolutions

⚠️ Feb 2025: Electricity prices were 76% higher than Feb 2024

Change: +76% vs 2024

1.7 Multi-Level Price Heatmap

Price Heatmap

€/MWh

104.3 €/MWh yearly avg

hourly range: -133-471

Yearly

Monthly

Daily

Hourly

600

175

-250

2. Load

Load 2024

160.2 TWh

Load 2025

159.1 TWh

-0.7%

Production 2024

157.3 TWh

Production 2025

158.7 TWh

+0.8%

2.1 Monthly Load

Monthly Consumption vs Production

TWh per month

Consumption 2024Consumption 2025Production 2024Production 2025

2.2 Average Load by Hour of Day

20.410.20

00:0006:0012:0018:0023:00

Load Pattern

Peak demand at 17:00 (20.4 GW). Minimum at 01:00 (14.7 GW).

2.3 Weekday vs Weekend

Weekday Average

19.0 GW

Weekend Average

16.1 GW

2.4 Net Load Pattern (Duck Curve)

Net Load Pattern (excl. Solar & Wind)

GW

Solar Integration Challenge

Evening ramp of 5.6 GW from belly (10:00) to evening peak (18:00). This requires flexible dispatchable generation or storage to meet rapidly increasing demand as solar output decreases.

2.5 Seasonal Net Load Patterns

The duck curve shape varies significantly by season due to changes in solar intensity and heating/cooling demand patterns.

Winter (Dec-Feb)

Winter (Dec-Feb) Net Load Pattern

GW

Belly: 12.9 GW @ 01:00 | Peak: 18.4 GW @ 17:00 | Ramp: 5.6 GW

Spring (Mar-May)

Spring (Mar-May) Net Load Pattern

GW

Belly: 9.3 GW @ 11:00 | Peak: 17.0 GW @ 18:00 | Ramp: 7.7 GW

Summer (Jun-Aug)

Summer (Jun-Aug) Net Load Pattern

GW

Belly: 8.2 GW @ 11:00 | Peak: 16.0 GW @ 18:00 | Ramp: 7.7 GW

Fall (Sep-Nov)

Fall (Sep-Nov) Net Load Pattern

GW

Belly: 11.6 GW @ 01:00 | Peak: 17.4 GW @ 17:00 | Ramp: 5.7 GW

Seasonal Comparison

Summer shows the most pronounced duck curve with an evening ramp of 7.7 GW, 2.1 GW larger than winter (5.6 GW). This reflects higher solar penetration in summer months creating steeper ramping requirements.

2.6 Peak & Minimum Demand Records (2025)

Rank	Highest Load	Date	Lowest Load	Date
1	26.1 GW	2025-11-24 11:00	10.6 GW	2025-04-21 03:00
2	26.0 GW	2025-11-24 10:00	10.7 GW	2025-04-21 00:00
3	25.9 GW	2025-11-24 09:00	10.7 GW	2025-04-21 01:00

3. Production-Based vs Flow-Traced Carbon Intensity (gCO₂eq/kWh)

Key Insight

Production-based carbon intensity is 36.4g higher than flow-traced carbon intensity in 2024 (36.8g in 2025). This means Poland's imports are cleaner than domestic production, lowering the carbon footprint of consumed electricity.

Production-Based 2024

738.9 g

Production-Based 2025

713.4 g

-25.5

Flow-Traced 2024

702.4 g

Flow-Traced 2025

676.6 g

-25.8

3.1 Monthly Production Mix

Production Mix by Month

GWh per month by source

2024: left bars2025: right bars

Nuclear

Hydro

Wind

Solar

Biomass

Gas

Coal

Oil

Hydro Storage

Battery

3.2 Production Mix (Domestic Generation)

2024 Production

57%

15%

11%

11%

2025 Production

54%

15%

15%

13%

3.3 Flow-Traced Power Mix

2024 Flow-Traced

54%

16%

11%

11%

2025 Flow-Traced

51%

16%

14%

12%

Nuclear

Hydro

Wind

Solar

Biomass

Gas

Coal

Oil

Hydro Storage

Battery

3.5 Power Mix Comparison

Production vs Flow-Traced consumption by source

Source	Prod 2024	Flow-traced 2024	Prod 2025	Flow-traced 2025
Coal	57.3%	54.2%	54.2% (-3.1pp)	50.6% (-3.6pp)
Wind	15.3%	16.2%	14.7% (-0.6pp)	15.9% (-0.3pp)
Gas	11.4%	11.3%	14.7% (+3.3pp)	14.4% (+3.1pp)
Solar	11.2%	10.7%	12.6% (+1.4pp)	11.8% (+1.1pp)
Biomass	1.5%	1.9%	1.9% (+0.4pp)	2.3% (+0.4pp)
Hydro	1.2%	2.3%	1.0% (-0.2pp)	2.1% (-0.2pp)
Nuclear	0.0%	1.2%	0.0% (+0.0pp)	1.1% (-0.1pp)
Oil	1.3%	1.2%	1.0% (-0.3pp)	0.9% (-0.3pp)
Hydro Storage	0.7%	0.8%	0.0% (-0.7pp)	0.8% (+0.0pp)

3.6 Key Trend

Coal Dominance (Flow-Traced)

Poland's electricity consumption is dominated by ~50.6% coal. Gas saw the biggest growth from 11.3% to 14.4%.

4. Cross-Border Electricity Flows

Total Exports 2025

14.27 TWh

+13.8%

Total Imports 2025

15.11 TWh

+5.9%

Net Position 2025

-0.85 TWh

Poland: Net Electricity Importer

Poland imported a net 0.85 TWh in 2025.

4.1 2025 Gross Exports (Poland → Neighbor)

Total electricity exported to each country — with average carbon intensity

6.68 TWh

453g

4.80 TWh

671g

1.51 TWh

534g

1.31 TWh

679g

0.67 TWh

320g

0.41 TWh

135g

4.2 2025 Gross Imports (Neighbor → Poland)

Total electricity imported from each country — with average carbon intensity

14.58 TWh

24g

9.87 TWh

590g

0.80 TWh

657g

0.43 TWh

734g

0.21 TWh

228g

0.13 TWh

169g

4.3 Net Position by Neighbor (2025)

Neighbor	Net (TWh)	Direction
CZ	+6.25	Net Exporter
SK	+4.67	Net Exporter
UA	+1.10	Net Exporter
LT	-0.38	Net Importer
DE	-9.20	Net Importer
SE	-13.07	Net Importer

Positive = Poland is net exporter to that neighbor. Negative = Poland is net importer from that neighbor.

4.4 Flow Pattern by Hour of Day

Cross-Border Flow Pattern by Hour

MW (positive = export, negative = import)

Net ExportNet Import

Cross-Border Flow Timing

Peak exports at 09:00 (1.0 GW avg). Peak imports at 18:00 (1.4 GW avg).

5. Carbon Intensity (gCO₂eq/kWh)

Mean 2024

702.4 g

Mean 2025

676.6 g

-25.8

Monthly Average Carbon Intensity

gCO₂eq/kWh (flow-traced)

20242025

5.1 Daily Records

Metric	2024	2025
Lowest Carbon Intensity	485.3 g (Feb 04, 2024)	474.2 g (Jun 23, 2025)
Lowest Fossil %	45.4% (Feb 04, 2024)	45.9% (Jun 23, 2025)
Highest Carbon Intensity	918.8 g (Dec 11, 2024)	886.2 g (Jan 21, 2025)
Highest Fossil %	90.8% (Nov 12, 2024)	88.1% (Jan 21, 2025)

5.2 Hourly Records

Metric	2024	2025
Lowest Carbon Intensity	351.3 g (May 17, 2024 09:00)	318.2 g (Jun 30, 2025 10:00)
Highest Carbon Intensity	985.0 g (Apr 22, 2024 18:00)	941.4 g (Feb 2, 2025 05:00)

5.3 Days Below Thresholds

Threshold	2024	2025	Δ
< 100 gCO₂eq/kWh	0	0	0
< 200 gCO₂eq/kWh	0	0	0
< 300 gCO₂eq/kWh	0	0	0

5.4 Hours Below Thresholds

Threshold	2024	2025	Δ
< 100 gCO₂eq/kWh	0	0	0
< 200 gCO₂eq/kWh	0	0	0
< 300 gCO₂eq/kWh	0	0	0

5.5 Average Carbon Intensity by Hour of Day

2025 Average Carbon Intensity by Hour

gCO₂eq/kWh

5.6 Seasonal Carbon Intensity Patterns

Carbon intensity daily patterns shift with seasonal changes in renewable generation and electricity demand.

Winter (Dec-Feb)

Winter (Dec-Feb) Carbon Intensity

gCO₂eq/kWh

Peak: 780 g @ 15:00 | Trough: 684 g @ 10:00 | Spread: 96 g

Spring (Mar-May)

Spring (Mar-May) Carbon Intensity

gCO₂eq/kWh

Peak: 745 g @ 19:00 | Trough: 487 g @ 10:00 | Spread: 258 g

Summer (Jun-Aug)

Summer (Jun-Aug) Carbon Intensity

gCO₂eq/kWh

Peak: 743 g @ 20:00 | Trough: 456 g @ 10:00 | Spread: 287 g

Fall (Sep-Nov)

Fall (Sep-Nov) Carbon Intensity

gCO₂eq/kWh

Peak: 747 g @ 16:00 | Trough: 576 g @ 10:00 | Spread: 171 g

Seasonal Comparison

Summer offers the lowest carbon intensity, with midday troughs reaching 456 gCO₂/kWh—33% lower than winter. Scheduling flexible loads during seasonal low-carbon windows maximizes emission reductions.

5.7 Carbon Intensity Distribution (Hourly)

Carbon Intensity Distribution

Number of hours at each level

20242025

Golden Hours

1,622 hours with both low price (<€88/MWh) and low carbon intensity (<580 gCO₂eq/kWh).

5.8 Multi-Level Carbon Intensity Heatmap

Carbon Intensity Heatmap

gCO₂eq/kWh

676.6 gCO₂eq/kWh yearly avg

hourly range: 318-941

Yearly

Monthly

Daily

Hourly

1200

600

0

6. Renewable & Carbon-Free Energy (Flow-Traced)

Includes electricity exchanged with neighboring grids

Renewable 2024

31.5%

Renewable 2025

31.9%

+0.4pp

Carbon-Free 2024

32.7%

Carbon-Free 2025

33.0%

+0.3pp

Monthly Carbon-Free Share

% of consumption (renewable + nuclear)

20242025

6.1 Days Above Thresholds

Days with carbon-free share above threshold

Threshold	2024	2025	Δ
≥50% carbon-free	8	4	-4
≥60% carbon-free	0	0	0
≥70% carbon-free	0	0	0

6.2 Hours Above Thresholds

Hours with carbon-free share above threshold

Threshold	2024	2025	Δ
≥50% carbon-free	910	1,259	+349
≥60% carbon-free	135	170	+35
≥70% carbon-free	0	0	0

6.3 Multi-Level Renewable % Heatmap

Renewable % Heatmap

31.9 % yearly avg

hourly range: 6-70

Yearly

Monthly

Daily

Hourly

100

50

0