Electricity Grid Review 2025: Norway
January 1 - December 31, 2024 vs 2025
Data coverage: 366 days (2024), 365 days (2025)
1. Electricity Price (Day-Ahead, EUR/MWh)
Correlation coefficient: 0.24 (2024), 0.48 (2025). Moderate correlation between price and carbon intensity.
1.1 Daily Price Extremes
Based on daily average prices
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Highest Daily Avg | €190.5 (Dec 12, 2024) | €128.5 (Feb 14, 2025) |
| Lowest Daily Avg | €1.5 (Aug 25, 2024) | €3.5 (Oct 04, 2025) |
| Negative Price Days | 0 | 0 |
| Negative Price Hours | 68 | 15 |
1.2 Hourly Price Extremes
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Highest Price | €414.2 (Dec 12, 2024 16:00) | €261.3 (Jan 20, 2025 16:00) |
| Lowest Price | €-30.8 (Aug 11, 2024 11:00) | €-7.2 (Aug 10, 2025 11:00) |
1.3 Days by Price Range
Based on daily average prices
| Range (€/MWh) | 2024 | 2025 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| €0-50 | 273 | 263 | -10 |
| €51-100 | 89 | 93 | +4 |
| €101-150 | 3 | 9 | +6 |
| €151-200 | 1 | 0 | -1 |
| €201+ | 0 | 0 | 0 |
1.4 Hours by Price Range
Based on hourly prices
| Range (€/MWh) | 2024 | 2025 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Negative | 68 | 15 | -53 |
| €0-50 | 6,469 | 6,248 | -221 |
| €51-100 | 2,095 | 2,214 | +119 |
| €101-150 | 110 | 218 | +108 |
| €151-200 | 19 | 58 | +39 |
| €201+ | 23 | 7 | -16 |
1.5 Average Price by Hour of Day
1.6 Price Distribution (Hourly)
15 hours with negative prices across 6 days. Most negative: €-7.2/MWh.
Average daily price swing: €38/MWh. Maximum single-day swing was €233/MWh on 2025-01-20 (low: €28, high: €261).
Notable monthly evolutions
Change: +107% vs 2024
1.7 Multi-Level Price Heatmap
Price Heatmap
€/MWh
hourly range: -7-261
Yearly
Monthly
Daily
Hourly
2. Load
2.1 Monthly Load
2.2 Average Load by Hour of Day
Peak demand at 17:00 (16.5 GW). Minimum at 02:00 (14.5 GW).
2.3 Weekday vs Weekend
2.4 Net Load Pattern (Duck Curve)
Evening ramp of 2.3 GW from belly (02:00) to evening peak (17:00). This requires flexible dispatchable generation or storage to meet rapidly increasing demand as solar output decreases.
2.5 Seasonal Net Load Patterns
The duck curve shape varies significantly by season due to changes in solar intensity and heating/cooling demand patterns.
Winter (Dec-Feb)
Belly: 15.1 GW @ 02:00 | Peak: 18.0 GW @ 17:00 | Ramp: 2.9 GW
Spring (Mar-May)
Belly: 12.7 GW @ 02:00 | Peak: 14.4 GW @ 18:00 | Ramp: 1.7 GW
Summer (Jun-Aug)
Belly: 10.8 GW @ 02:00 | Peak: 12.7 GW @ 18:00 | Ramp: 2.0 GW
Fall (Sep-Nov)
Belly: 12.3 GW @ 02:00 | Peak: 15.2 GW @ 17:00 | Ramp: 2.9 GW
Evening ramps are similar across seasons: winter 2.9 GW, summer 2.0 GW. The grid faces consistent ramping challenges year-round.
2.6 Peak & Minimum Demand Records (2025)
| Rank | Highest Load | Date | Lowest Load | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 23.2 GW | 2025-01-06 15:00 | 10.2 GW | 2025-08-09 04:00 |
| 2 | 23.1 GW | 2025-01-06 08:00 | 10.6 GW | 2025-07-17 02:00 |
| 3 | 23.0 GW | 2025-01-06 14:00 | 10.6 GW | 2025-08-09 05:00 |
3. Production-Based vs Flow-Traced Carbon Intensity (gCO₂eq/kWh)
Production-based carbon intensity is 3.5g lower than flow-traced carbon intensity in 2024 (1.4g in 2025). This means Norway's domestic production is slightly cleaner than consumed electricity.
3.1 Monthly Production Mix
3.2 Production Mix (Domestic Generation)
3.3 Flow-Traced Power Mix
3.5 Power Mix Comparison
Production vs Flow-Traced consumption by source
| Source | Prod 2024 | Flow-traced 2024 | Prod 2025 | Flow-traced 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hydro | 88.0% | 81.9% | 89.1% (+1.1pp) | 84.7% (+2.8pp) |
| Wind | 9.4% | 12.8% | 8.5% (-0.9pp) | 10.6% (-2.2pp) |
| Nuclear | 0.0% | 1.7% | 0.0% (+0.0pp) | 1.6% (-0.1pp) |
| Hydro Storage | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.6% (+0.2pp) | 1.3% (+0.1pp) |
| Gas | 1.1% | 1.4% | 0.7% (-0.4pp) | 0.8% (-0.6pp) |
| Solar | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% (+0.0pp) | 0.6% (+0.1pp) |
| Biomass | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% (+0.0pp) | 0.3% (-0.1pp) |
| Coal | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% (+0.0pp) | 0.1% (-0.1pp) |
3.6 Key Trend
Norway's electricity consumption is dominated by ~84.7% hydro. Hydro saw the biggest growth from 81.9% to 84.7%.
4. Cross-Border Electricity Flows
Norway exported a net 20.75 TWh in 2025.
4.1 2025 Gross Exports (Norway → Neighbor)
Total electricity exported to each country — with average carbon intensity
4.2 2025 Gross Imports (Neighbor → Norway)
Total electricity imported from each country — with average carbon intensity
4.3 Net Position by Neighbor (2025)
| Neighbor | Net (TWh) | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| GB | +8.18 | Net Exporter |
| DE | +7.01 | Net Exporter |
| DK | +6.94 | Net Exporter |
| NL | +2.08 | Net Exporter |
| FI | +0.17 | Net Exporter |
| SE | -3.66 | Net Importer |
Positive = Norway is net exporter to that neighbor. Negative = Norway is net importer from that neighbor.
4.4 Flow Pattern by Hour of Day
Peak exports at 17:00 (3.8 GW avg).
4.5 Internal Flows Between Bidding Zones
Norway consists of multiple bidding zones with internal transmission links. These flows represent electricity transfers between zones within the country.
| Link | Net Flow (TWh) | Avg CI (g/kWh) |
|---|---|---|
| NO-NO1 → NO-NO2 | +4.73 | 26 |
| NO-NO1 → NO-NO3 | -2.04 | 28 |
| NO-NO1 → NO-NO5 | -13.00 | 25 |
| NO-NO2 → NO-NO5 | -3.90 | 26 |
| NO-NO3 → NO-NO4 | -5.05 | 47 |
| NO-NO3 → NO-NO5 | +1.93 | 28 |
| NO-NO5 → NO-NO1 | +13.00 | 25 |
| NO-NO5 → NO-NO2 | +3.90 | 26 |
Positive = net flow in the direction indicated. These are internal transfers and do not count as imports/exports.
5. Carbon Intensity (gCO₂eq/kWh)
5.1 Daily Records
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Lowest Carbon Intensity | 27.1 g (Aug 26, 2024) | 26.1 g (Mar 03, 2025) |
| Lowest Fossil % | 1.0% (Dec 20, 2024) | 0.5% (May 28, 2025) |
| Highest Carbon Intensity | 56.0 g (Jan 06, 2024) | 39.5 g (Jun 08, 2025) |
| Highest Fossil % | 4.6% (Jan 06, 2024) | 2.6% (Jan 01, 2025) |
5.2 Hourly Records
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Lowest Carbon Intensity | 25.6 g (Aug 26, 2024 09:00) | 24.3 g (May 16, 2025 02:00) |
| Highest Carbon Intensity | 67.6 g (Feb 11, 2024 03:00) | 53.2 g (Aug 26, 2025 11:00) |
5.3 Days Below Thresholds
| Threshold | 2024 | 2025 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| < 100 gCO₂eq/kWh | 366 | 365 | -1 |
| < 200 gCO₂eq/kWh | 366 | 365 | -1 |
| < 300 gCO₂eq/kWh | 366 | 365 | -1 |
5.4 Hours Below Thresholds
| Threshold | 2024 | 2025 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| < 100 gCO₂eq/kWh | 8,784 | 8,760 | -24 |
| < 200 gCO₂eq/kWh | 8,784 | 8,760 | -24 |
| < 300 gCO₂eq/kWh | 8,784 | 8,760 | -24 |
5.5 Average Carbon Intensity by Hour of Day
5.6 Seasonal Carbon Intensity Patterns
Carbon intensity daily patterns shift with seasonal changes in renewable generation and electricity demand.
Winter (Dec-Feb)
Peak: 30 g @ 02:00 | Trough: 29 g @ 15:00 | Spread: 2 g
Spring (Mar-May)
Peak: 34 g @ 11:00 | Trough: 28 g @ 19:00 | Spread: 7 g
Summer (Jun-Aug)
Peak: 37 g @ 11:00 | Trough: 28 g @ 22:00 | Spread: 9 g
Fall (Sep-Nov)
Peak: 33 g @ 11:00 | Trough: 30 g @ 17:00 | Spread: 3 g
Summer peaks reach 37 gCO₂/kWh. Scheduling flexible loads during seasonal low-carbon windows maximizes emission reductions.
5.7 Carbon Intensity Distribution (Hourly)
Notable monthly evolutions
Change: -27% vs Jan 2024
Change: -21% vs Feb 2024
507 hours with both low price (<€31/MWh) and low carbon intensity (<28 gCO₂eq/kWh).
5.8 Multi-Level Carbon Intensity Heatmap
Carbon Intensity Heatmap
gCO₂eq/kWh
hourly range: 24-53
Yearly
Monthly
Daily
Hourly
6. Renewable & Carbon-Free Energy (Flow-Traced)
Includes electricity exchanged with neighboring grids
6.1 Days Above Thresholds
Days with carbon-free share above threshold
| Threshold | 2024 | 2025 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≥50% carbon-free | 366 | 365 | -1 |
| ≥60% carbon-free | 366 | 365 | -1 |
| ≥70% carbon-free | 366 | 365 | -1 |
6.2 Hours Above Thresholds
Hours with carbon-free share above threshold
| Threshold | 2024 | 2025 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≥50% carbon-free | 8,784 | 8,760 | -24 |
| ≥60% carbon-free | 8,784 | 8,760 | -24 |
| ≥70% carbon-free | 8,784 | 8,760 | -24 |
6.3 Multi-Level Renewable % Heatmap
Renewable % Heatmap
%
hourly range: 90-100
Yearly
Monthly
Daily
Hourly
