Electricity Grid Review 2025: Luxembourg
January 1 - December 31, 2024 vs 2025
Data coverage: 366 days (2024), 365 days (2025)
1. Electricity Price (Day-Ahead, EUR/MWh)
Correlation coefficient: -0.73 (2024), -0.77 (2025). Strong negative correlation - higher renewable generation = lower prices, reflecting the merit order effect.
1.1 Daily Price Extremes
Based on daily average prices
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Highest Daily Avg | €366.4 (Dec 12, 2024) | €242.6 (Jan 15, 2025) |
| Lowest Daily Avg | €1.9 (Jul 06, 2024) | €-2.6 (Jan 01, 2025) |
| Negative Price Days | 0 | 2 |
| Negative Price Hours | 428 | 545 |
1.2 Hourly Price Extremes
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Highest Price | €823.0 (Dec 12, 2024 16:00) | €468.3 (Sep 29, 2025 17:00) |
| Lowest Price | €-107.5 (Apr 14, 2024 12:00) | €-194.2 (May 11, 2025 12:00) |
1.3 Days by Price Range
Based on daily average prices
| Range (€/MWh) | 2024 | 2025 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| €0-50 | 67 | 36 | -31 |
| €51-100 | 233 | 213 | -20 |
| €101-150 | 57 | 100 | +43 |
| €151-200 | 6 | 14 | +8 |
| €201+ | 3 | 2 | -1 |
1.4 Hours by Price Range
Based on hourly prices
| Range (€/MWh) | 2024 | 2025 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Negative | 428 | 545 | +117 |
| €0-50 | 1,561 | 1,015 | -546 |
| €51-100 | 4,603 | 3,723 | -880 |
| €101-150 | 1,840 | 2,817 | +977 |
| €151-200 | 246 | 502 | +256 |
| €201+ | 105 | 157 | +52 |
1.5 Average Price by Hour of Day
1.6 Price Distribution (Hourly)
545 hours with negative prices across 113 days. Most negative: €-194.2/MWh.
Average daily price swing: €124/MWh. Maximum single-day swing was €414/MWh on 2025-09-19 (low: €-5, high: €409).
Notable monthly evolutions
Change: +111% vs 2024
Possible explanation: February 2025 prices surged across Europe due to the TTF natural gas price spike following the Russia-Ukraine gas transit halt in January 2025. Luxembourg is highly import-dependent (>80% of consumption) and directly coupled to the DE/BE/FR markets, so European-wide price dynamics pass through directly. [Data: price: 161.3 EUR/MWh (+111% YoY)]
1.7 Multi-Level Price Heatmap
Price Heatmap
€/MWh
hourly range: -194-468
Yearly
Monthly
Daily
Hourly
2. Load
2.1 Monthly Load
2.2 Average Load by Hour of Day
Peak demand at 10:00 (0.8 GW). Minimum at 02:00 (0.6 GW).
2.3 Weekday vs Weekend
2.4 Net Load Pattern (Duck Curve)
Evening ramp of 0.2 GW from belly (12:00) to evening peak (18:00). This requires flexible dispatchable generation or storage to meet rapidly increasing demand as solar output decreases.
2.5 Seasonal Net Load Patterns
The duck curve shape varies significantly by season due to changes in solar intensity and heating/cooling demand patterns.
Winter (Dec-Feb)
Belly: 0.4 GW @ 03:00 | Peak: 0.6 GW @ 17:00 | Ramp: 0.2 GW
Spring (Mar-May)
Belly: 0.3 GW @ 11:00 | Peak: 0.6 GW @ 18:00 | Ramp: 0.3 GW
Summer (Jun-Aug)
Belly: 0.2 GW @ 12:00 | Peak: 0.5 GW @ 19:00 | Ramp: 0.3 GW
Fall (Sep-Nov)
Belly: 0.3 GW @ 11:00 | Peak: 0.5 GW @ 17:00 | Ramp: 0.2 GW
Evening ramps are similar across seasons: winter 0.2 GW, summer 0.3 GW. The grid faces consistent ramping challenges year-round.
2.6 Peak & Minimum Demand Records (2025)
| Rank | Highest Load | Date | Lowest Load | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1.1 GW | 2025-01-16 09:00 | 0.4 GW | 2025-08-17 02:00 |
| 2 | 1.1 GW | 2025-01-17 16:00 | 0.4 GW | 2025-08-17 05:00 |
| 3 | 1.1 GW | 2025-02-04 17:00 | 0.4 GW | 2025-08-17 04:00 |
3. Production-Based vs Flow-Traced Carbon Intensity (gCO₂eq/kWh)
Production-based carbon intensity is 117.1g lower than flow-traced carbon intensity in 2024 (114.6g in 2025). This means Luxembourg's domestic production is slightly cleaner than consumed electricity.
3.1 Monthly Production Mix
3.2 Production Mix (Domestic Generation)
3.3 Flow-Traced Power Mix
3.4 Import/Export Impact on Mix
Luxembourg produces no nuclear power locally, but ~21% of consumed electricity comes from nuclear imports. Wind makes up ~34% of local production but only ~25% of consumed electricity (some exported). Solar makes up ~32% of local production but only ~15% of consumed electricity (some exported). Biomass makes up ~24% of local production but only ~10% of consumed electricity (some exported). Gas makes up ~12% of consumed electricity but only ~4% of local production (difference from imports). Luxembourg produces no coal power locally, but ~10% of consumed electricity comes from coal imports.
3.5 Power Mix Comparison
Production vs Flow-Traced consumption by source
| Source | Prod 2024 | Flow-traced 2024 | Prod 2025 | Flow-traced 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind | 36.4% | 25.6% | 34.5% (-1.9pp) | 24.6% (-1.0pp) |
| Nuclear | 0.0% | 18.8% | 0.0% (+0.0pp) | 20.6% (+1.8pp) |
| Solar | 23.1% | 13.0% | 31.7% (+8.6pp) | 15.4% (+2.4pp) |
| Gas | 5.1% | 10.7% | 4.5% (-0.6pp) | 11.5% (+0.8pp) |
| Biomass | 27.4% | 11.4% | 24.1% (-3.3pp) | 10.3% (-1.1pp) |
| Coal | 0.0% | 10.7% | 0.0% (+0.0pp) | 9.6% (-1.1pp) |
| Hydro | 8.1% | 7.9% | 5.2% (-2.9pp) | 6.1% (-1.8pp) |
| Hydro Storage | 0.0% | 1.5% | 0.0% (+0.0pp) | 1.5% (+0.0pp) |
| Oil | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% (+0.0pp) | 0.3% (-0.1pp) |
3.6 Key Trend
Luxembourg's electricity consumption is led by ~24.6% wind. Solar saw the biggest growth from 13.0% to 15.4%.
4. Cross-Border Electricity Flows
Luxembourg imported a net 4.71 TWh in 2025.
4.1 2025 Gross Exports (Luxembourg → Neighbor)
Total electricity exported to each country — with average carbon intensity
4.2 2025 Gross Imports (Neighbor → Luxembourg)
Total electricity imported from each country — with average carbon intensity
4.3 Net Position by Neighbor (2025)
| Neighbor | Net (TWh) | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| BE | -0.88 | Net Importer |
| FR | -1.17 | Net Importer |
| DE | -2.63 | Net Importer |
Positive = Luxembourg is net exporter to that neighbor. Negative = Luxembourg is net importer from that neighbor.
4.4 Flow Pattern by Hour of Day
Peak exports at 02:00 (-0.5 GW avg). Peak imports at 17:00 (0.6 GW avg).
5. Carbon Intensity (gCO₂eq/kWh)
5.1 Daily Records
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Lowest Carbon Intensity | 90.0 g (Nov 24, 2024) | 74.4 g (Sep 15, 2025) |
| Lowest Fossil % | 7.5% (Jul 06, 2024) | 6.0% (Sep 15, 2025) |
| Highest Carbon Intensity | 528.7 g (Jan 12, 2024) | 403.2 g (Nov 20, 2025) |
| Highest Fossil % | 59.5% (Jan 12, 2024) | 48.5% (Feb 14, 2025) |
5.2 Hourly Records
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Lowest Carbon Intensity | 58.2 g (Jan 2, 2024 01:00) | 46.4 g (May 9, 2025 10:00) |
| Highest Carbon Intensity | 579.8 g (Jan 10, 2024 21:00) | 469.0 g (Nov 26, 2025 15:00) |
5.3 Days Below Thresholds
| Threshold | 2024 | 2025 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| < 100 gCO₂eq/kWh | 5 | 13 | +8 |
| < 200 gCO₂eq/kWh | 175 | 194 | +19 |
| < 300 gCO₂eq/kWh | 306 | 306 | 0 |
5.4 Hours Below Thresholds
| Threshold | 2024 | 2025 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| < 100 gCO₂eq/kWh | 788 | 1,373 | +585 |
| < 200 gCO₂eq/kWh | 4,160 | 4,369 | +209 |
| < 300 gCO₂eq/kWh | 6,871 | 6,936 | +65 |
5.5 Average Carbon Intensity by Hour of Day
5.6 Seasonal Carbon Intensity Patterns
Carbon intensity daily patterns shift with seasonal changes in renewable generation and electricity demand.
Winter (Dec-Feb)
Peak: 289 g @ 16:00 | Trough: 235 g @ 01:00 | Spread: 55 g
Spring (Mar-May)
Peak: 249 g @ 18:00 | Trough: 109 g @ 12:00 | Spread: 140 g
Summer (Jun-Aug)
Peak: 253 g @ 20:00 | Trough: 90 g @ 12:00 | Spread: 163 g
Fall (Sep-Nov)
Peak: 262 g @ 17:00 | Trough: 175 g @ 11:00 | Spread: 87 g
Summer offers the lowest carbon intensity, with midday troughs reaching 90 gCO₂/kWh—62% lower than winter. Scheduling flexible loads during seasonal low-carbon windows maximizes emission reductions.
5.7 Carbon Intensity Distribution (Hourly)
1,758 hours with both low price (<€69/MWh) and low carbon intensity (<124 gCO₂eq/kWh).
5.8 Multi-Level Carbon Intensity Heatmap
Carbon Intensity Heatmap
gCO₂eq/kWh
hourly range: 46-469
Yearly
Monthly
Daily
Hourly
6. Renewable & Carbon-Free Energy (Flow-Traced)
Includes electricity exchanged with neighboring grids
6.1 Days Above Thresholds
Days with carbon-free share above threshold
| Threshold | 2024 | 2025 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≥50% carbon-free | 310 | 281 | -29 |
| ≥60% carbon-free | 159 | 154 | -5 |
| ≥70% carbon-free | 47 | 25 | -22 |
6.2 Hours Above Thresholds
Hours with carbon-free share above threshold
| Threshold | 2024 | 2025 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≥50% carbon-free | 6,131 | 5,546 | -585 |
| ≥60% carbon-free | 4,059 | 3,590 | -469 |
| ≥70% carbon-free | 1,934 | 1,910 | -24 |
6.3 Multi-Level Carbon-Free % Heatmap
Carbon-Free % Heatmap
%
hourly range: 44-98
Yearly
Monthly
Daily
Hourly
