Electricity Grid Review 2025: Italy

January 1 - December 31, 2024 vs 2025

Data coverage: 366 days (2024), 365 days (2025)

1. Electricity Price (Day-Ahead, EUR/MWh)

Mean 2024

€54.7

Mean 2025

€56.9

+€2.2

Monthly Average Day-Ahead Price

EUR/MWh

20242025

Price-Carbon Correlation

Correlation coefficient: -0.70 (2024), -0.73 (2025). Strong negative correlation - higher renewable generation = lower prices, reflecting the merit order effect.

1.1 Daily Price Extremes

Based on daily average prices

Metric	2024	2025
Highest Daily Avg	€91.4 (Dec 11, 2024)	€87.0 (Feb 12, 2025)
Lowest Daily Avg	€28.3 (Mar 24, 2024)	€1.4 (Oct 26, 2025)
Negative Price Days	0	0
Negative Price Hours	—	—

1.2 Hourly Price Extremes

Metric	2024	2025
Highest Price	€137.7 (Dec 11, 2024 17:00)	€144.5 (Jan 20, 2025 17:00)
Lowest Price	€0.0 (Oct 19, 2024 01:00)	€0.0 (May 1, 2025 12:00)

1.3 Days by Price Range

Based on daily average prices

Range (€/MWh)	2024	2025	Δ
€0-50	123	74	-49
€51-100	243	291	+48
€101-150	0	0	0
€151-200	0	0	0
€201+	0	0	0

1.4 Hours by Price Range

Based on hourly prices

Range (€/MWh)	2024	2025	Δ
Negative	0	0	0
€0-50	3,446	1,917	-1,529
€51-100	5,249	6,583	+1,334
€101-150	64	37	-27
€151-200	0	0	0
€201+	0	0	0

1.5 Average Price by Hour of Day

2025 Average Price by Hour

€/MWh

1.6 Price Distribution (Hourly)

Price Distribution

Number of hours at each level

20242025

Intraday Price Volatility

Average daily price swing: €39/MWh. Maximum single-day swing was €95/MWh on 2025-02-13 (low: €4, high: €99).

Notable monthly evolutions

⚠️ Feb 2025: Electricity prices were 66% higher than Feb 2024

Change: +66% vs 2024

1.7 Multi-Level Price Heatmap

Price Heatmap

€/MWh

57.7 €/MWh yearly avg

hourly range: 0-145

Yearly

Monthly

Daily

Hourly

600

175

-250

2. Load

Load 2024

559.4 TWh

Load 2025

511.8 TWh

-8.5%

Production 2024

456.6 TWh

Production 2025

428.4 TWh

-6.2%

2.1 Monthly Load

Monthly Consumption vs Production

TWh per month

Consumption 2024Consumption 2025Production 2024Production 2025

2.2 Average Load by Hour of Day

67.433.70

00:0006:0012:0018:0023:00

Load Pattern

Peak demand at 17:00 (67.4 GW). Minimum at 02:00 (43.6 GW).

2.3 Weekday vs Weekend

Weekday Average

61.9 GW

Weekend Average

49.7 GW

2.4 Net Load Pattern (Duck Curve)

Net Load Pattern (excl. Solar & Wind)

GW

Solar Integration Challenge

Evening ramp of 26.9 GW from belly (11:00) to evening peak (18:00). This requires flexible dispatchable generation or storage to meet rapidly increasing demand as solar output decreases.

2.5 Seasonal Net Load Patterns

The duck curve shape varies significantly by season due to changes in solar intensity and heating/cooling demand patterns.

Winter (Dec-Feb)

Winter (Dec-Feb) Net Load Pattern

GW

Belly: 35.0 GW @ 02:00 | Peak: 64.3 GW @ 17:00 | Ramp: 29.3 GW

Spring (Mar-May)

Spring (Mar-May) Net Load Pattern

GW

Belly: 25.6 GW @ 11:00 | Peak: 55.3 GW @ 18:00 | Ramp: 29.7 GW

Summer (Jun-Aug)

Summer (Jun-Aug) Net Load Pattern

GW

Belly: 31.9 GW @ 11:00 | Peak: 64.8 GW @ 18:00 | Ramp: 32.9 GW

Fall (Sep-Nov)

Fall (Sep-Nov) Net Load Pattern

GW

Belly: 37.4 GW @ 11:00 | Peak: 65.0 GW @ 17:00 | Ramp: 27.6 GW

Seasonal Comparison

Summer shows the most pronounced duck curve with an evening ramp of 32.9 GW, 3.6 GW larger than winter (29.3 GW). This reflects higher solar penetration in summer months creating steeper ramping requirements.

2.6 Peak & Minimum Demand Records (2025)

Rank	Highest Load	Date	Lowest Load	Date
1	97.0 GW	2025-07-03 14:00	17.0 GW	2025-01-10 01:00
2	96.2 GW	2025-07-03 13:00	17.0 GW	2025-01-10 02:00
3	95.7 GW	2025-07-04 13:00	17.3 GW	2025-01-10 00:00

3. Production-Based vs Flow-Traced Carbon Intensity (gCO₂eq/kWh)

Key Insight

Production-based carbon intensity is 42.6g higher than flow-traced carbon intensity in 2024 (45.5g in 2025). This means Italy's imports are cleaner than domestic production, lowering the carbon footprint of consumed electricity.

Production-Based 2024

310.0 g

Production-Based 2025

331.3 g

+21.3

Flow-Traced 2024

267.5 g

Flow-Traced 2025

285.8 g

+18.3

3.1 Monthly Production Mix

Production Mix by Month

GWh per month by source

2024: left bars2025: right bars

Nuclear

Hydro

Wind

Solar

Biomass

Gas

Coal

Oil

Hydro Storage

Battery

3.2 Production Mix (Domestic Generation)

2024 Production

47%

22%

13%

11%

2025 Production

52%

17%

15%

10%

3.3 Flow-Traced Power Mix

2024 Flow-Traced

38%

24%

12%

10%

8%

2025 Flow-Traced

43%

16%

14%

10%

9%

Nuclear

Hydro

Wind

Solar

Biomass

Gas

Coal

Oil

Hydro Storage

Battery

3.4 Import/Export Impact on Mix

Italy produces no nuclear power locally, but ~9% of consumed electricity comes from nuclear imports. Gas makes up ~52% of local production but only ~43% of consumed electricity (some exported).

3.5 Power Mix Comparison

Production vs Flow-Traced consumption by source

Source	Prod 2024	Flow-traced 2024	Prod 2025	Flow-traced 2025
Gas	47.0%	38.2%	52.4% (+5.4pp)	43.2% (+5.0pp)
Hydro	22.0%	24.1%	14.8% (-7.2pp)	16.4% (-7.7pp)
Solar	13.2%	11.6%	16.7% (+3.5pp)	14.5% (+2.9pp)
Wind	10.5%	9.7%	10.2% (-0.3pp)	9.6% (-0.1pp)
Nuclear	0.0%	8.3%	0.0% (+0.0pp)	9.3% (+1.0pp)
Biomass	3.8%	3.3%	3.5% (-0.3pp)	3.1% (-0.2pp)
Coal	1.7%	2.4%	1.6% (-0.1pp)	1.8% (-0.6pp)
Hydro Storage	1.3%	2.0%	0.5% (-0.8pp)	1.3% (-0.7pp)
Battery	0.0%	0.0%	0.0% (+0.0pp)	0.5% (+0.5pp)
Oil	0.5%	0.5%	0.4% (-0.1pp)	0.4% (-0.1pp)

3.6 Key Trend

Gas Dominance (Flow-Traced)

Italy's electricity consumption is dominated by ~43.2% gas. Gas saw the biggest growth from 38.2% to 43.2%.

4. Cross-Border Electricity Flows

Total Exports 2025

36.44 TWh

-36.1%

Total Imports 2025

119.44 TWh

-23.0%

Net Position 2025

-83.00 TWh

Italy: Net Electricity Importer

Italy imported a net 83.00 TWh in 2025.

4.1 2025 Gross Exports (Italy → Neighbor)

Total electricity exported to each country — with average carbon intensity

1.44 TWh

0.65 TWh

0.55 TWh

0.53 TWh

0.52 TWh

0.17 TWh

0.01 TWh

4.2 2025 Gross Imports (Neighbor → Italy)

Total electricity imported from each country — with average carbon intensity

48.43 TWh

22.91 TWh

10.00 TWh

2.37 TWh

1.79 TWh

1.06 TWh

4.3 Net Position by Neighbor (2025)

Neighbor	Net (TWh)	Direction
MT	+1.44	Net Exporter
ME	-0.41	Net Importer
GR	-1.27	Net Importer
AT	-2.36	Net Importer
SI	-9.84	Net Importer
CH	-22.35	Net Importer
FR	-47.89	Net Importer

Positive = Italy is net exporter to that neighbor. Negative = Italy is net importer from that neighbor.

4.4 Flow Pattern by Hour of Day

Cross-Border Flow Pattern by Hour

MW (positive = export, negative = import)

Net ExportNet Import

Cross-Border Flow Timing

Peak imports at 00:00 (10.9 GW avg).

5. Carbon Intensity (gCO₂eq/kWh)

Mean 2024

267.5 g

Mean 2025

285.8 g

+18.3

Monthly Average Carbon Intensity

gCO₂eq/kWh (flow-traced)

20242025

5.1 Daily Records

Metric	2024	2025
Lowest Carbon Intensity	151.1 g (Jun 16, 2024)	127.8 g (May 29, 2025)
Lowest Fossil %	22.0% (Jun 16, 2024)	18.8% (May 29, 2025)
Highest Carbon Intensity	397.5 g (Dec 12, 2024)	406.4 g (Jan 20, 2025)
Highest Fossil %	71.4% (Dec 12, 2024)	70.9% (Jan 21, 2025)

5.2 Hourly Records

Metric	2024	2025
Lowest Carbon Intensity	101.7 g (May 11, 2024 11:00)	72.2 g (May 29, 2025 10:00)
Highest Carbon Intensity	435.6 g (Dec 12, 2024 05:00)	442.8 g (Jan 20, 2025 18:00)

5.3 Days Below Thresholds

Threshold	2024	2025	Δ
< 100 gCO₂eq/kWh	0	0	0
< 200 gCO₂eq/kWh	40	29	-11
< 300 gCO₂eq/kWh	287	227	-60

5.4 Hours Below Thresholds

Threshold	2024	2025	Δ
< 100 gCO₂eq/kWh	0	15	+15
< 200 gCO₂eq/kWh	1,415	1,512	+97
< 300 gCO₂eq/kWh	6,180	4,612	-1568

5.5 Average Carbon Intensity by Hour of Day

2025 Average Carbon Intensity by Hour

gCO₂eq/kWh

5.6 Seasonal Carbon Intensity Patterns

Carbon intensity daily patterns shift with seasonal changes in renewable generation and electricity demand.

Winter (Dec-Feb)

Winter (Dec-Feb) Carbon Intensity

gCO₂eq/kWh

Peak: 369 g @ 19:00 | Trough: 297 g @ 11:00 | Spread: 72 g

Spring (Mar-May)

Spring (Mar-May) Carbon Intensity

gCO₂eq/kWh

Peak: 315 g @ 18:00 | Trough: 164 g @ 11:00 | Spread: 151 g

Summer (Jun-Aug)

Summer (Jun-Aug) Carbon Intensity

gCO₂eq/kWh

Peak: 318 g @ 20:00 | Trough: 161 g @ 11:00 | Spread: 157 g

Fall (Sep-Nov)

Fall (Sep-Nov) Carbon Intensity

gCO₂eq/kWh

Peak: 343 g @ 19:00 | Trough: 219 g @ 11:00 | Spread: 124 g

Seasonal Comparison

Summer offers the lowest carbon intensity, with midday troughs reaching 161 gCO₂/kWh—46% lower than winter. Winter evening peaks are the most carbon-intensive at 369 gCO₂/kWh. Scheduling flexible loads during seasonal low-carbon windows maximizes emission reductions.

5.7 Carbon Intensity Distribution (Hourly)

Carbon Intensity Distribution

Number of hours at each level

20242025

Notable monthly evolutions

ℹ️ Feb 2025: Carbon intensity was 23% higher in Feb

Change: +23% vs Feb 2024

ℹ️ Mar 2025: Carbon intensity was 20% higher in Mar

Change: +20% vs Mar 2024

Golden Hours

1,307 hours with both low price (<€51/MWh) and low carbon intensity (<229 gCO₂eq/kWh).

5.8 Multi-Level Carbon Intensity Heatmap

Carbon Intensity Heatmap

gCO₂eq/kWh

285.8 gCO₂eq/kWh yearly avg

hourly range: 72-443

Yearly

Monthly

Daily

Hourly

1200

600

0

6. Renewable & Carbon-Free Energy (Flow-Traced)

Includes electricity exchanged with neighboring grids

Renewable 2024

47.8%

Renewable 2025

43.0%

-4.8pp

Carbon-Free 2024

55.8%

Carbon-Free 2025

51.7%

-4.1pp

Monthly Carbon-Free Share

% of consumption (renewable + nuclear)

20242025

6.1 Days Above Thresholds

Days with carbon-free share above threshold

Threshold	2024	2025	Δ
≥50% carbon-free	161	115	-46
≥60% carbon-free	52	27	-25
≥70% carbon-free	2	2	0

6.2 Hours Above Thresholds

Hours with carbon-free share above threshold

Threshold	2024	2025	Δ
≥50% carbon-free	3,721	2,562	-1,159
≥60% carbon-free	1,610	1,508	-102
≥70% carbon-free	589	764	+175

6.3 Multi-Level Renewable % Heatmap

Renewable % Heatmap

43.0 % yearly avg

hourly range: 15-86

Yearly

Monthly

Daily

Hourly

100

50

0