Electricity Grid Review 2025: Italy
January 1 - December 31, 2024 vs 2025
Data coverage: 366 days (2024), 365 days (2025)
1. Electricity Price (Day-Ahead, EUR/MWh)
Correlation coefficient: -0.70 (2024), -0.73 (2025). Strong negative correlation - higher renewable generation = lower prices, reflecting the merit order effect.
1.1 Daily Price Extremes
Based on daily average prices
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Highest Daily Avg | €91.4 (Dec 11, 2024) | €87.0 (Feb 12, 2025) |
| Lowest Daily Avg | €28.3 (Mar 24, 2024) | €1.4 (Oct 26, 2025) |
| Negative Price Days | 0 | 0 |
| Negative Price Hours | — | — |
1.2 Hourly Price Extremes
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Highest Price | €137.7 (Dec 11, 2024 17:00) | €144.5 (Jan 20, 2025 17:00) |
| Lowest Price | €0.0 (Oct 19, 2024 01:00) | €0.0 (May 1, 2025 12:00) |
1.3 Days by Price Range
Based on daily average prices
| Range (€/MWh) | 2024 | 2025 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| €0-50 | 123 | 74 | -49 |
| €51-100 | 243 | 291 | +48 |
| €101-150 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| €151-200 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| €201+ | 0 | 0 | 0 |
1.4 Hours by Price Range
Based on hourly prices
| Range (€/MWh) | 2024 | 2025 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Negative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| €0-50 | 3,446 | 1,917 | -1,529 |
| €51-100 | 5,249 | 6,583 | +1,334 |
| €101-150 | 64 | 37 | -27 |
| €151-200 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| €201+ | 0 | 0 | 0 |
1.5 Average Price by Hour of Day
1.6 Price Distribution (Hourly)
Average daily price swing: €39/MWh. Maximum single-day swing was €95/MWh on 2025-02-13 (low: €4, high: €99).
Notable monthly evolutions
Change: +66% vs 2024
1.7 Multi-Level Price Heatmap
Price Heatmap
€/MWh
hourly range: 0-145
Yearly
Monthly
Daily
Hourly
2. Load
2.1 Monthly Load
2.2 Average Load by Hour of Day
Peak demand at 17:00 (67.4 GW). Minimum at 02:00 (43.6 GW).
2.3 Weekday vs Weekend
2.4 Net Load Pattern (Duck Curve)
Evening ramp of 26.9 GW from belly (11:00) to evening peak (18:00). This requires flexible dispatchable generation or storage to meet rapidly increasing demand as solar output decreases.
2.5 Seasonal Net Load Patterns
The duck curve shape varies significantly by season due to changes in solar intensity and heating/cooling demand patterns.
Winter (Dec-Feb)
Belly: 35.0 GW @ 02:00 | Peak: 64.3 GW @ 17:00 | Ramp: 29.3 GW
Spring (Mar-May)
Belly: 25.6 GW @ 11:00 | Peak: 55.3 GW @ 18:00 | Ramp: 29.7 GW
Summer (Jun-Aug)
Belly: 31.9 GW @ 11:00 | Peak: 64.8 GW @ 18:00 | Ramp: 32.9 GW
Fall (Sep-Nov)
Belly: 37.4 GW @ 11:00 | Peak: 65.0 GW @ 17:00 | Ramp: 27.6 GW
Summer shows the most pronounced duck curve with an evening ramp of 32.9 GW, 3.6 GW larger than winter (29.3 GW). This reflects higher solar penetration in summer months creating steeper ramping requirements.
2.6 Peak & Minimum Demand Records (2025)
| Rank | Highest Load | Date | Lowest Load | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 97.0 GW | 2025-07-03 14:00 | 17.0 GW | 2025-01-10 01:00 |
| 2 | 96.2 GW | 2025-07-03 13:00 | 17.0 GW | 2025-01-10 02:00 |
| 3 | 95.7 GW | 2025-07-04 13:00 | 17.3 GW | 2025-01-10 00:00 |
3. Production-Based vs Flow-Traced Carbon Intensity (gCO₂eq/kWh)
Production-based carbon intensity is 42.6g higher than flow-traced carbon intensity in 2024 (45.5g in 2025). This means Italy's imports are cleaner than domestic production, lowering the carbon footprint of consumed electricity.
3.1 Monthly Production Mix
3.2 Production Mix (Domestic Generation)
3.3 Flow-Traced Power Mix
3.4 Import/Export Impact on Mix
Italy produces no nuclear power locally, but ~9% of consumed electricity comes from nuclear imports. Gas makes up ~52% of local production but only ~43% of consumed electricity (some exported).
3.5 Power Mix Comparison
Production vs Flow-Traced consumption by source
| Source | Prod 2024 | Flow-traced 2024 | Prod 2025 | Flow-traced 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gas | 47.0% | 38.2% | 52.4% (+5.4pp) | 43.2% (+5.0pp) |
| Hydro | 22.0% | 24.1% | 14.8% (-7.2pp) | 16.4% (-7.7pp) |
| Solar | 13.2% | 11.6% | 16.7% (+3.5pp) | 14.5% (+2.9pp) |
| Wind | 10.5% | 9.7% | 10.2% (-0.3pp) | 9.6% (-0.1pp) |
| Nuclear | 0.0% | 8.3% | 0.0% (+0.0pp) | 9.3% (+1.0pp) |
| Biomass | 3.8% | 3.3% | 3.5% (-0.3pp) | 3.1% (-0.2pp) |
| Coal | 1.7% | 2.4% | 1.6% (-0.1pp) | 1.8% (-0.6pp) |
| Hydro Storage | 1.3% | 2.0% | 0.5% (-0.8pp) | 1.3% (-0.7pp) |
| Battery | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% (+0.0pp) | 0.5% (+0.5pp) |
| Oil | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% (-0.1pp) | 0.4% (-0.1pp) |
3.6 Key Trend
Italy's electricity consumption is dominated by ~43.2% gas. Gas saw the biggest growth from 38.2% to 43.2%.
4. Cross-Border Electricity Flows
Italy imported a net 83.00 TWh in 2025.
4.1 2025 Gross Exports (Italy → Neighbor)
Total electricity exported to each country — with average carbon intensity
4.2 2025 Gross Imports (Neighbor → Italy)
Total electricity imported from each country — with average carbon intensity
4.3 Net Position by Neighbor (2025)
| Neighbor | Net (TWh) | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| MT | +1.44 | Net Exporter |
| ME | -0.41 | Net Importer |
| GR | -1.27 | Net Importer |
| AT | -2.36 | Net Importer |
| SI | -9.84 | Net Importer |
| CH | -22.35 | Net Importer |
| FR | -47.89 | Net Importer |
Positive = Italy is net exporter to that neighbor. Negative = Italy is net importer from that neighbor.
4.4 Flow Pattern by Hour of Day
Peak imports at 00:00 (10.9 GW avg).
5. Carbon Intensity (gCO₂eq/kWh)
5.1 Daily Records
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Lowest Carbon Intensity | 151.1 g (Jun 16, 2024) | 127.8 g (May 29, 2025) |
| Lowest Fossil % | 22.0% (Jun 16, 2024) | 18.8% (May 29, 2025) |
| Highest Carbon Intensity | 397.5 g (Dec 12, 2024) | 406.4 g (Jan 20, 2025) |
| Highest Fossil % | 71.4% (Dec 12, 2024) | 70.9% (Jan 21, 2025) |
5.2 Hourly Records
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Lowest Carbon Intensity | 101.7 g (May 11, 2024 11:00) | 72.2 g (May 29, 2025 10:00) |
| Highest Carbon Intensity | 435.6 g (Dec 12, 2024 05:00) | 442.8 g (Jan 20, 2025 18:00) |
5.3 Days Below Thresholds
| Threshold | 2024 | 2025 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| < 100 gCO₂eq/kWh | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| < 200 gCO₂eq/kWh | 40 | 29 | -11 |
| < 300 gCO₂eq/kWh | 287 | 227 | -60 |
5.4 Hours Below Thresholds
| Threshold | 2024 | 2025 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| < 100 gCO₂eq/kWh | 0 | 15 | +15 |
| < 200 gCO₂eq/kWh | 1,415 | 1,512 | +97 |
| < 300 gCO₂eq/kWh | 6,180 | 4,612 | -1568 |
5.5 Average Carbon Intensity by Hour of Day
5.6 Seasonal Carbon Intensity Patterns
Carbon intensity daily patterns shift with seasonal changes in renewable generation and electricity demand.
Winter (Dec-Feb)
Peak: 369 g @ 19:00 | Trough: 297 g @ 11:00 | Spread: 72 g
Spring (Mar-May)
Peak: 315 g @ 18:00 | Trough: 164 g @ 11:00 | Spread: 151 g
Summer (Jun-Aug)
Peak: 318 g @ 20:00 | Trough: 161 g @ 11:00 | Spread: 157 g
Fall (Sep-Nov)
Peak: 343 g @ 19:00 | Trough: 219 g @ 11:00 | Spread: 124 g
Summer offers the lowest carbon intensity, with midday troughs reaching 161 gCO₂/kWh—46% lower than winter. Winter evening peaks are the most carbon-intensive at 369 gCO₂/kWh. Scheduling flexible loads during seasonal low-carbon windows maximizes emission reductions.
5.7 Carbon Intensity Distribution (Hourly)
Notable monthly evolutions
Change: +23% vs Feb 2024
Change: +20% vs Mar 2024
1,307 hours with both low price (<€51/MWh) and low carbon intensity (<229 gCO₂eq/kWh).
5.8 Multi-Level Carbon Intensity Heatmap
Carbon Intensity Heatmap
gCO₂eq/kWh
hourly range: 72-443
Yearly
Monthly
Daily
Hourly
6. Renewable & Carbon-Free Energy (Flow-Traced)
Includes electricity exchanged with neighboring grids
6.1 Days Above Thresholds
Days with carbon-free share above threshold
| Threshold | 2024 | 2025 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≥50% carbon-free | 161 | 115 | -46 |
| ≥60% carbon-free | 52 | 27 | -25 |
| ≥70% carbon-free | 2 | 2 | 0 |
6.2 Hours Above Thresholds
Hours with carbon-free share above threshold
| Threshold | 2024 | 2025 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≥50% carbon-free | 3,721 | 2,562 | -1,159 |
| ≥60% carbon-free | 1,610 | 1,508 | -102 |
| ≥70% carbon-free | 589 | 764 | +175 |
6.3 Multi-Level Renewable % Heatmap
Renewable % Heatmap
%
hourly range: 15-86
Yearly
Monthly
Daily
Hourly
