Electricity Grid Review 2025: Germany
January 1 - December 31, 2024 vs 2025
Data coverage: 366 days (2024), 365 days (2025)
1. Electricity Price (Day-Ahead, EUR/MWh)
Correlation coefficient: -0.79 (2024), -0.89 (2025). Strong negative correlation - higher renewable generation = lower prices, reflecting the merit order effect.
1.1 Daily Price Extremes
Based on daily average prices
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Highest Daily Avg | €423.7 (Dec 12, 2024) | €242.6 (Jan 20, 2025) |
| Lowest Daily Avg | €-1.5 (May 01, 2024) | €-0.4 (Oct 04, 2025) |
| Negative Price Days | 1 | 1 |
| Negative Price Hours | 440 | 576 |
1.2 Hourly Price Extremes
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Highest Price | €936.3 (Dec 12, 2024 16:00) | €583.4 (Jan 20, 2025 16:00) |
| Lowest Price | €-120.1 (May 1, 2024 12:00) | €-250.3 (May 11, 2025 11:00) |
1.3 Days by Price Range
Based on daily average prices
| Range (€/MWh) | 2024 | 2025 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| €0-50 | 68 | 36 | -32 |
| €51-100 | 230 | 214 | -16 |
| €101-150 | 57 | 99 | +42 |
| €151-200 | 8 | 13 | +5 |
| €201+ | 3 | 3 | 0 |
1.4 Hours by Price Range
Based on hourly prices
| Range (€/MWh) | 2024 | 2025 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Negative | 440 | 576 | +136 |
| €0-50 | 1,526 | 866 | -660 |
| €51-100 | 4,581 | 3,746 | -835 |
| €101-150 | 1,883 | 2,859 | +976 |
| €151-200 | 229 | 473 | +244 |
| €201+ | 110 | 162 | +52 |
1.5 Average Price by Hour of Day
1.6 Price Distribution (Hourly)
576 hours with negative prices across 104 days. Most negative: €-250.3/MWh.
Average daily price swing: €125/MWh. Maximum single-day swing was €469/MWh on 2025-01-20 (low: €114, high: €583).
Notable monthly evolutions
Change: +110% vs 2024
1.7 Multi-Level Price Heatmap
Price Heatmap
€/MWh
hourly range: -250-583
Yearly
Monthly
Daily
Hourly
2. Load
2.1 Monthly Load
2.2 Average Load by Hour of Day
Peak demand at 09:00 (57.7 GW). Minimum at 01:00 (40.7 GW).
2.3 Weekday vs Weekend
2.4 Net Load Pattern (Duck Curve)
Evening ramp of 16.3 GW from belly (12:00) to evening peak (18:00). This requires flexible dispatchable generation or storage to meet rapidly increasing demand as solar output decreases.
2.5 Seasonal Net Load Patterns
The duck curve shape varies significantly by season due to changes in solar intensity and heating/cooling demand patterns.
Winter (Dec-Feb)
Belly: 27.8 GW @ 01:00 | Peak: 42.6 GW @ 17:00 | Ramp: 14.8 GW
Spring (Mar-May)
Belly: 15.7 GW @ 12:00 | Peak: 39.5 GW @ 18:00 | Ramp: 23.8 GW
Summer (Jun-Aug)
Belly: 12.6 GW @ 12:00 | Peak: 35.2 GW @ 18:00 | Ramp: 22.7 GW
Fall (Sep-Nov)
Belly: 23.9 GW @ 01:00 | Peak: 38.0 GW @ 17:00 | Ramp: 14.1 GW
Summer shows the most pronounced duck curve with an evening ramp of 22.7 GW, 7.9 GW larger than winter (14.8 GW). This reflects higher solar penetration in summer months creating steeper ramping requirements.
2.6 Peak & Minimum Demand Records (2025)
| Rank | Highest Load | Date | Lowest Load | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 71.3 GW | 2025-01-14 08:00 | 31.2 GW | 2025-11-09 02:00 |
| 2 | 71.1 GW | 2025-11-27 10:00 | 31.8 GW | 2025-11-09 03:00 |
| 3 | 71.1 GW | 2025-01-14 07:00 | 32.0 GW | 2025-11-09 04:00 |
3. Production-Based vs Flow-Traced Carbon Intensity (gCO₂eq/kWh)
Production-based carbon intensity is 33.3g higher than flow-traced carbon intensity in 2024 (27.2g in 2025). This means Germany's imports are cleaner than domestic production, lowering the carbon footprint of consumed electricity.
3.1 Monthly Production Mix
3.2 Production Mix (Domestic Generation)
3.3 Flow-Traced Power Mix
3.4 Import/Export Impact on Mix
Germany produces no nuclear power locally, but ~4% of consumed electricity comes from nuclear imports. Germany produces no hydro storage power locally, but ~2% of consumed electricity comes from hydro storage imports.
3.5 Power Mix Comparison
Production vs Flow-Traced consumption by source
| Source | Prod 2024 | Flow-traced 2024 | Prod 2025 | Flow-traced 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind | 32.5% | 29.1% | 31.1% (-1.4pp) | 28.4% (-0.7pp) |
| Coal | 23.1% | 20.5% | 22.3% (-0.8pp) | 20.1% (-0.4pp) |
| Solar | 14.8% | 13.2% | 17.5% (+2.7pp) | 15.4% (+2.2pp) |
| Gas | 14.5% | 13.4% | 15.2% (+0.7pp) | 14.6% (+1.2pp) |
| Biomass | 10.0% | 9.0% | 9.7% (-0.3pp) | 8.8% (-0.2pp) |
| Hydro | 4.1% | 7.6% | 3.3% (-0.8pp) | 6.2% (-1.4pp) |
| Nuclear | 0.0% | 4.4% | 0.0% (+0.0pp) | 3.9% (-0.5pp) |
| Hydro Storage | 0.2% | 2.1% | 0.2% (+0.0pp) | 2.1% (+0.0pp) |
| Oil | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.7% (-0.1pp) | 0.6% (-0.1pp) |
3.6 Key Trend
Germany's electricity consumption is led by ~28.4% wind. Solar saw the biggest growth from 13.2% to 15.4%.
4. Cross-Border Electricity Flows
Germany imported a net 18.87 TWh in 2025.
4.1 2025 Gross Exports (Germany → Neighbor)
Total electricity exported to each country — with average carbon intensity
4.2 2025 Gross Imports (Neighbor → Germany)
Total electricity imported from each country — with average carbon intensity
4.3 Net Position by Neighbor (2025)
| Neighbor | Net (TWh) | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| PL | +9.20 | Net Exporter |
| AT | +7.46 | Net Exporter |
| LU | +5.25 | Net Exporter |
| CZ | +5.20 | Net Exporter |
| CH | +0.83 | Net Exporter |
| BE | -2.92 | Net Importer |
| SE | -4.89 | Net Importer |
| NL | -5.81 | Net Importer |
| NO | -14.02 | Net Importer |
| DK | -15.09 | Net Importer |
| FR | -17.06 | Net Importer |
Positive = Germany is net exporter to that neighbor. Negative = Germany is net importer from that neighbor.
4.4 Flow Pattern by Hour of Day
Peak exports at 11:00 (2.2 GW avg). Peak imports at 17:00 (4.7 GW avg).
5. Carbon Intensity (gCO₂eq/kWh)
5.1 Daily Records
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Lowest Carbon Intensity | 145.5 g (Sep 27, 2024) | 111.3 g (Oct 04, 2025) |
| Lowest Fossil % | 13.1% (Sep 27, 2024) | 9.6% (Oct 04, 2025) |
| Highest Carbon Intensity | 589.1 g (Jan 11, 2024) | 559.6 g (Feb 02, 2025) |
| Highest Fossil % | 66.2% (Nov 06, 2024) | 64.0% (Feb 14, 2025) |
5.2 Hourly Records
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Lowest Carbon Intensity | 112.2 g (Aug 23, 2024 10:00) | 97.0 g (Oct 26, 2025 09:00) |
| Highest Carbon Intensity | 651.1 g (Dec 28, 2024 01:00) | 632.7 g (Mar 24, 2025 02:00) |
5.3 Days Below Thresholds
| Threshold | 2024 | 2025 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| < 100 gCO₂eq/kWh | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| < 200 gCO₂eq/kWh | 27 | 38 | +11 |
| < 300 gCO₂eq/kWh | 153 | 153 | 0 |
5.4 Hours Below Thresholds
| Threshold | 2024 | 2025 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| < 100 gCO₂eq/kWh | 0 | 8 | +8 |
| < 200 gCO₂eq/kWh | 1,420 | 1,741 | +321 |
| < 300 gCO₂eq/kWh | 3,724 | 3,683 | -41 |
5.5 Average Carbon Intensity by Hour of Day
5.6 Seasonal Carbon Intensity Patterns
Carbon intensity daily patterns shift with seasonal changes in renewable generation and electricity demand.
Winter (Dec-Feb)
Peak: 408 g @ 15:00 | Trough: 349 g @ 11:00 | Spread: 60 g
Spring (Mar-May)
Peak: 410 g @ 02:00 | Trough: 198 g @ 11:00 | Spread: 212 g
Summer (Jun-Aug)
Peak: 376 g @ 20:00 | Trough: 155 g @ 11:00 | Spread: 221 g
Fall (Sep-Nov)
Peak: 376 g @ 17:00 | Trough: 257 g @ 11:00 | Spread: 120 g
Summer offers the lowest carbon intensity, with midday troughs reaching 155 gCO₂/kWh—56% lower than winter. Scheduling flexible loads during seasonal low-carbon windows maximizes emission reductions.
5.7 Carbon Intensity Distribution (Hourly)
Notable monthly evolutions
Change: +32% vs Feb 2024
Change: +20% vs Apr 2024
Change: -20% vs Jun 2024
1,843 hours with both low price (<€71/MWh) and low carbon intensity (<225 gCO₂eq/kWh).
5.8 Multi-Level Carbon Intensity Heatmap
Carbon Intensity Heatmap
gCO₂eq/kWh
hourly range: 97-633
Yearly
Monthly
Daily
Hourly
6. Renewable & Carbon-Free Energy (Flow-Traced)
Includes electricity exchanged with neighboring grids
6.1 Days Above Thresholds
Days with carbon-free share above threshold
| Threshold | 2024 | 2025 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≥50% carbon-free | 308 | 286 | -22 |
| ≥60% carbon-free | 210 | 208 | -2 |
| ≥70% carbon-free | 97 | 104 | +7 |
6.2 Hours Above Thresholds
Hours with carbon-free share above threshold
| Threshold | 2024 | 2025 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≥50% carbon-free | 6,549 | 6,152 | -397 |
| ≥60% carbon-free | 4,578 | 4,485 | -93 |
| ≥70% carbon-free | 2,774 | 2,828 | +54 |
6.3 Multi-Level Renewable % Heatmap
Renewable % Heatmap
%
hourly range: 23-92
Yearly
Monthly
Daily
Hourly
