Electricity Grid Review 2025: Estonia
January 1 - December 31, 2024 vs 2025
Data coverage: 366 days (2024), 365 days (2025)
1. Electricity Price (Day-Ahead, EUR/MWh)
Correlation coefficient: -0.54 (2024), -0.69 (2025). Strong negative correlation - higher renewable generation = lower prices, reflecting the merit order effect.
1.1 Daily Price Extremes
Based on daily average prices
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Highest Daily Avg | €924.8 (Jan 05, 2024) | €270.3 (Feb 15, 2025) |
| Lowest Daily Avg | €2.5 (Oct 20, 2024) | €-2.4 (Jun 29, 2025) |
| Negative Price Days | 0 | 1 |
| Negative Price Hours | 183 | 203 |
1.2 Hourly Price Extremes
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Highest Price | €1896.0 (Jan 5, 2024 17:00) | €1000.0 (Oct 20, 2025 05:00) |
| Lowest Price | €-20.0 (Aug 25, 2024 11:00) | €-21.7 (Jun 14, 2025 12:00) |
1.3 Days by Price Range
Based on daily average prices
| Range (€/MWh) | 2024 | 2025 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| €0-50 | 69 | 104 | +35 |
| €51-100 | 163 | 141 | -22 |
| €101-150 | 115 | 82 | -33 |
| €151-200 | 14 | 31 | +17 |
| €201+ | 5 | 7 | +2 |
1.4 Hours by Price Range
Based on hourly prices
| Range (€/MWh) | 2024 | 2025 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Negative | 183 | 203 | +20 |
| €0-50 | 2,275 | 3,284 | +1,009 |
| €51-100 | 3,375 | 2,285 | -1,090 |
| €101-150 | 1,910 | 1,725 | -185 |
| €151-200 | 588 | 724 | +136 |
| €201+ | 400 | 497 | +97 |
1.5 Average Price by Hour of Day
1.6 Price Distribution (Hourly)
203 hours with negative prices across 52 days. Most negative: €-21.7/MWh.
Average daily price swing: €166/MWh. Maximum single-day swing was €982/MWh on 2025-10-20 (low: €18, high: €1000).
Notable monthly evolutions
Change: +100% vs 2024
1.7 Multi-Level Price Heatmap
Price Heatmap
€/MWh
hourly range: -22-1000
Yearly
Monthly
Daily
Hourly
2. Load
2.1 Monthly Load
2.2 Average Load by Hour of Day
Peak demand at 07:00 (1.0 GW). Minimum at 01:00 (0.7 GW).
2.3 Weekday vs Weekend
2.4 Net Load Pattern (Duck Curve)
Evening ramp of 0.2 GW from belly (10:00) to evening peak (17:00). This requires flexible dispatchable generation or storage to meet rapidly increasing demand as solar output decreases.
2.5 Seasonal Net Load Patterns
The duck curve shape varies significantly by season due to changes in solar intensity and heating/cooling demand patterns.
Winter (Dec-Feb)
Belly: 0.6 GW @ 01:00 | Peak: 0.8 GW @ 17:00 | Ramp: 0.2 GW
Spring (Mar-May)
Belly: 0.4 GW @ 10:00 | Peak: 0.6 GW @ 17:00 | Ramp: 0.3 GW
Summer (Jun-Aug)
Belly: 0.3 GW @ 10:00 | Peak: 0.6 GW @ 18:00 | Ramp: 0.3 GW
Fall (Sep-Nov)
Belly: 0.5 GW @ 00:00 | Peak: 0.7 GW @ 17:00 | Ramp: 0.1 GW
Evening ramps are similar across seasons: winter 0.2 GW, summer 0.3 GW. The grid faces consistent ramping challenges year-round.
2.6 Peak & Minimum Demand Records (2025)
| Rank | Highest Load | Date | Lowest Load | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1.7 GW | 2025-10-06 14:00 | 0.0 GW | 2025-09-21 21:00 |
| 2 | 1.6 GW | 2025-10-06 16:00 | 0.1 GW | 2025-09-22 00:00 |
| 3 | 1.6 GW | 2025-10-06 06:00 | 0.1 GW | 2025-09-21 23:00 |
3. Production-Based vs Flow-Traced Carbon Intensity (gCO₂eq/kWh)
Production-based carbon intensity is 170.8g higher than flow-traced carbon intensity in 2024 (161.9g in 2025). This means Estonia's imports are cleaner than domestic production, lowering the carbon footprint of consumed electricity.
3.1 Monthly Production Mix
3.2 Production Mix (Domestic Generation)
3.3 Flow-Traced Power Mix
3.4 Import/Export Impact on Mix
Estonia produces no nuclear power locally, but ~18% of consumed electricity comes from nuclear imports. Estonia produces no hydro power locally, but ~12% of consumed electricity comes from hydro imports. Solar makes up ~22% of local production but only ~12% of consumed electricity (some exported). Coal makes up ~30% of local production but only ~16% of consumed electricity (some exported).
3.5 Power Mix Comparison
Production vs Flow-Traced consumption by source
| Source | Prod 2024 | Flow-traced 2024 | Prod 2025 | Flow-traced 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind | 23.6% | 23.2% | 26.4% (+2.8pp) | 26.0% (+2.8pp) |
| Nuclear | 0.0% | 15.5% | 0.0% (+0.0pp) | 17.5% (+2.0pp) |
| Coal | 34.4% | 19.1% | 29.6% (-4.8pp) | 16.0% (-3.1pp) |
| Solar | 20.4% | 10.9% | 22.5% (+2.1pp) | 12.1% (+1.2pp) |
| Hydro | 0.1% | 13.7% | 0.1% (+0.0pp) | 11.5% (-2.2pp) |
| Biomass | 11.2% | 9.3% | 10.9% (-0.3pp) | 10.1% (+0.8pp) |
| Gas | 10.3% | 8.3% | 10.6% (+0.3pp) | 6.8% (-1.5pp) |
| Hydro Storage | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% (+0.0pp) | 0.1% (+0.0pp) |
3.6 Key Trend
Estonia's electricity consumption is led by ~26.0% wind. Wind saw the biggest growth from 23.2% to 26.0%.
4. Cross-Border Electricity Flows
Estonia imported a net 3.08 TWh in 2025.
4.1 2025 Gross Exports (Estonia → Neighbor)
Total electricity exported to each country — with average carbon intensity
4.2 2025 Gross Imports (Neighbor → Estonia)
Total electricity imported from each country — with average carbon intensity
4.3 Net Position by Neighbor (2025)
| Neighbor | Net (TWh) | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| LV | +3.35 | Net Exporter |
| RU | -0.07 | Net Importer |
| FI | -4.68 | Net Importer |
Positive = Estonia is net exporter to that neighbor. Negative = Estonia is net importer from that neighbor.
4.4 Flow Pattern by Hour of Day
Peak imports at 17:00 (0.5 GW avg).
5. Carbon Intensity (gCO₂eq/kWh)
5.1 Daily Records
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Lowest Carbon Intensity | 70.7 g (Oct 18, 2024) | 54.5 g (Aug 04, 2025) |
| Lowest Fossil % | 6.2% (Oct 18, 2024) | 3.8% (Aug 04, 2025) |
| Highest Carbon Intensity | 662.6 g (Jan 06, 2024) | 665.0 g (Feb 14, 2025) |
| Highest Fossil % | 72.2% (Jan 06, 2024) | 65.3% (Feb 17, 2025) |
5.2 Hourly Records
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Lowest Carbon Intensity | 58.3 g (Oct 18, 2024 17:00) | 47.8 g (Aug 4, 2025 11:00) |
| Highest Carbon Intensity | 798.5 g (Oct 2, 2024 11:00) | 885.0 g (Oct 17, 2025 11:00) |
5.3 Days Below Thresholds
| Threshold | 2024 | 2025 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| < 100 gCO₂eq/kWh | 22 | 78 | +56 |
| < 200 gCO₂eq/kWh | 77 | 152 | +75 |
| < 300 gCO₂eq/kWh | 245 | 265 | +20 |
5.4 Hours Below Thresholds
| Threshold | 2024 | 2025 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| < 100 gCO₂eq/kWh | 553 | 1,924 | +1371 |
| < 200 gCO₂eq/kWh | 2,389 | 3,947 | +1558 |
| < 300 gCO₂eq/kWh | 5,370 | 6,366 | +996 |
5.5 Average Carbon Intensity by Hour of Day
5.6 Seasonal Carbon Intensity Patterns
Carbon intensity daily patterns shift with seasonal changes in renewable generation and electricity demand.
Winter (Dec-Feb)
Peak: 340 g @ 15:00 | Trough: 312 g @ 00:00 | Spread: 28 g
Spring (Mar-May)
Peak: 336 g @ 17:00 | Trough: 243 g @ 11:00 | Spread: 93 g
Summer (Jun-Aug)
Peak: 121 g @ 01:00 | Trough: 104 g @ 07:00 | Spread: 17 g
Fall (Sep-Nov)
Peak: 219 g @ 15:00 | Trough: 189 g @ 22:00 | Spread: 29 g
Summer offers the lowest carbon intensity, with midday troughs reaching 104 gCO₂/kWh—67% lower than winter. Winter evening peaks are the most carbon-intensive at 340 gCO₂/kWh. Scheduling flexible loads during seasonal low-carbon windows maximizes emission reductions.
5.7 Carbon Intensity Distribution (Hourly)
Notable monthly evolutions
Change: +30% vs Feb 2024
Change: +27% vs Apr 2024
Change: -24% vs May 2024
Change: -36% vs Jun 2024
Change: -71% vs Jul 2024
Change: -67% vs Aug 2024
Change: -42% vs Sep 2024
Change: -27% vs Dec 2024
921 hours with both low price (<€21/MWh) and low carbon intensity (<120 gCO₂eq/kWh).
5.8 Multi-Level Carbon Intensity Heatmap
Carbon Intensity Heatmap
gCO₂eq/kWh
hourly range: 48-885
Yearly
Monthly
Daily
Hourly
6. Renewable & Carbon-Free Energy (Flow-Traced)
Includes electricity exchanged with neighboring grids
6.1 Days Above Thresholds
Days with carbon-free share above threshold
| Threshold | 2024 | 2025 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≥50% carbon-free | 258 | 297 | +39 |
| ≥60% carbon-free | 124 | 205 | +81 |
| ≥70% carbon-free | 15 | 42 | +27 |
6.2 Hours Above Thresholds
Hours with carbon-free share above threshold
| Threshold | 2024 | 2025 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≥50% carbon-free | 5,653 | 6,645 | +992 |
| ≥60% carbon-free | 3,344 | 4,031 | +687 |
| ≥70% carbon-free | 1,072 | 1,745 | +673 |
6.3 Multi-Level Carbon-Free % Heatmap
Carbon-Free % Heatmap
%
hourly range: 12-98
Yearly
Monthly
Daily
Hourly
