Electricity Grid Review 2025: Croatia
January 1 - December 31, 2024 vs 2025
Data coverage: 366 days (2024), 365 days (2025)
1. Electricity Price (Day-Ahead, EUR/MWh)
Correlation coefficient: -0.38 (2024), -0.26 (2025). Moderate correlation between price and carbon intensity.
1.1 Daily Price Extremes
Based on daily average prices
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Highest Daily Avg | €364.3 (Dec 12, 2024) | €247.2 (Jan 20, 2025) |
| Lowest Daily Avg | €10.0 (May 01, 2024) | €23.6 (Mar 30, 2025) |
| Negative Price Days | 0 | 0 |
| Negative Price Hours | 194 | 254 |
1.2 Hourly Price Extremes
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Highest Price | €902.2 (Sep 2, 2024 17:00) | €574.9 (Jan 20, 2025 16:00) |
| Lowest Price | €-100.7 (May 1, 2024 12:00) | €-151.0 (May 11, 2025 12:00) |
1.3 Days by Price Range
Based on daily average prices
| Range (€/MWh) | 2024 | 2025 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| €0-50 | 28 | 9 | -19 |
| €51-100 | 190 | 133 | -57 |
| €101-150 | 116 | 190 | +74 |
| €151-200 | 20 | 29 | +9 |
| €201+ | 12 | 4 | -8 |
1.4 Hours by Price Range
Based on hourly prices
| Range (€/MWh) | 2024 | 2025 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Negative | 194 | 254 | +60 |
| €0-50 | 1,079 | 706 | -373 |
| €51-100 | 4,273 | 2,844 | -1,429 |
| €101-150 | 2,292 | 3,696 | +1,404 |
| €151-200 | 539 | 870 | +331 |
| €201+ | 359 | 318 | -41 |
1.5 Average Price by Hour of Day
1.6 Price Distribution (Hourly)
254 hours with negative prices across 56 days. Most negative: €-151.0/MWh.
Average daily price swing: €147/MWh. Maximum single-day swing was €461/MWh on 2025-01-20 (low: €114, high: €575).
Notable monthly evolutions
Change: +121% vs 2024
1.7 Multi-Level Price Heatmap
Price Heatmap
€/MWh
hourly range: -151-575
Yearly
Monthly
Daily
Hourly
2. Load
2.1 Monthly Load
2.2 Average Load by Hour of Day
Peak demand at 18:00 (2.5 GW). Minimum at 02:00 (1.6 GW).
2.3 Weekday vs Weekend
2.4 Net Load Pattern (Duck Curve)
Evening ramp of 0.9 GW from belly (02:00) to evening peak (18:00). This requires flexible dispatchable generation or storage to meet rapidly increasing demand as solar output decreases.
2.5 Seasonal Net Load Patterns
The duck curve shape varies significantly by season due to changes in solar intensity and heating/cooling demand patterns.
Winter (Dec-Feb)
Belly: 1.4 GW @ 02:00 | Peak: 2.3 GW @ 18:00 | Ramp: 0.9 GW
Spring (Mar-May)
Belly: 1.1 GW @ 12:00 | Peak: 2.0 GW @ 18:00 | Ramp: 0.8 GW
Summer (Jun-Aug)
Belly: 1.2 GW @ 12:00 | Peak: 2.3 GW @ 18:00 | Ramp: 1.0 GW
Fall (Sep-Nov)
Belly: 1.2 GW @ 02:00 | Peak: 2.1 GW @ 17:00 | Ramp: 0.9 GW
Evening ramps are similar across seasons: winter 0.9 GW, summer 1.0 GW. The grid faces consistent ramping challenges year-round.
2.6 Peak & Minimum Demand Records (2025)
| Rank | Highest Load | Date | Lowest Load | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3.3 GW | 2025-06-25 19:00 | 1.1 GW | 2025-04-20 13:00 |
| 2 | 3.2 GW | 2025-06-25 17:00 | 1.2 GW | 2025-04-20 12:00 |
| 3 | 3.2 GW | 2025-06-25 18:00 | 1.2 GW | 2025-04-20 14:00 |
3. Production-Based vs Flow-Traced Carbon Intensity (gCO₂eq/kWh)
Production-based carbon intensity is 16.4g lower than flow-traced carbon intensity in 2024 (25.4g in 2025). This means Croatia's domestic production is slightly cleaner than consumed electricity.
3.1 Monthly Production Mix
3.2 Production Mix (Domestic Generation)
3.3 Flow-Traced Power Mix
3.4 Import/Export Impact on Mix
Croatia produces no nuclear power locally, but ~13% of consumed electricity comes from nuclear imports. Hydro makes up ~38% of local production but only ~30% of consumed electricity (some exported). Wind makes up ~25% of local production but only ~15% of consumed electricity (some exported). Coal makes up ~12% of consumed electricity but only ~6% of local production (difference from imports).
3.5 Power Mix Comparison
Production vs Flow-Traced consumption by source
| Source | Prod 2024 | Flow-traced 2024 | Prod 2025 | Flow-traced 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hydro | 42.3% | 35.5% | 37.6% (-4.7pp) | 30.1% (-5.4pp) |
| Wind | 20.1% | 12.8% | 25.3% (+5.2pp) | 15.3% (+2.5pp) |
| Gas | 22.1% | 15.9% | 19.5% (-2.6pp) | 15.2% (-0.7pp) |
| Nuclear | 0.0% | 12.0% | 0.0% (+0.0pp) | 12.8% (+0.8pp) |
| Coal | 5.6% | 11.6% | 5.5% (-0.1pp) | 11.8% (+0.2pp) |
| Solar | 1.8% | 5.1% | 4.5% (+2.7pp) | 7.5% (+2.4pp) |
| Biomass | 5.2% | 3.8% | 5.4% (+0.2pp) | 4.1% (+0.3pp) |
| Hydro Storage | 2.9% | 3.3% | 2.1% (-0.8pp) | 3.1% (-0.2pp) |
| Oil | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% (+0.0pp) | 0.1% (+0.0pp) |
3.6 Key Trend
Croatia's electricity consumption is led by ~30.1% hydro. Wind saw the biggest growth from 12.8% to 15.3%.
4. Cross-Border Electricity Flows
Croatia imported a net 5.87 TWh in 2025.
4.1 2025 Gross Exports (Croatia → Neighbor)
Total electricity exported to each country — with average carbon intensity
4.2 2025 Gross Imports (Neighbor → Croatia)
Total electricity imported from each country — with average carbon intensity
4.3 Net Position by Neighbor (2025)
| Neighbor | Net (TWh) | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| RS | +0.46 | Net Exporter |
| SI | -4.48 | Net Importer |
| HU | -4.49 | Net Importer |
Positive = Croatia is net exporter to that neighbor. Negative = Croatia is net importer from that neighbor.
4.4 Flow Pattern by Hour of Day
Peak imports at 10:00 (0.9 GW avg).
5. Carbon Intensity (gCO₂eq/kWh)
5.1 Daily Records
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Lowest Carbon Intensity | 94.8 g (Jun 02, 2024) | 63.9 g (May 10, 2025) |
| Lowest Fossil % | 11.7% (Jun 09, 2024) | 6.1% (May 10, 2025) |
| Highest Carbon Intensity | 367.0 g (Sep 04, 2024) | 396.7 g (Sep 26, 2025) |
| Highest Fossil % | 46.0% (Sep 04, 2024) | 49.4% (Sep 26, 2025) |
5.2 Hourly Records
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Lowest Carbon Intensity | 75.3 g (May 15, 2024 19:00) | 45.7 g (May 10, 2025 06:00) |
| Highest Carbon Intensity | 482.5 g (Sep 4, 2024 02:00) | 523.4 g (Sep 14, 2025 04:00) |
5.3 Days Below Thresholds
| Threshold | 2024 | 2025 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| < 100 gCO₂eq/kWh | 2 | 24 | +22 |
| < 200 gCO₂eq/kWh | 124 | 142 | +18 |
| < 300 gCO₂eq/kWh | 337 | 310 | -27 |
5.4 Hours Below Thresholds
| Threshold | 2024 | 2025 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| < 100 gCO₂eq/kWh | 144 | 815 | +671 |
| < 200 gCO₂eq/kWh | 3,219 | 3,740 | +521 |
| < 300 gCO₂eq/kWh | 7,746 | 7,065 | -681 |
5.5 Average Carbon Intensity by Hour of Day
5.6 Seasonal Carbon Intensity Patterns
Carbon intensity daily patterns shift with seasonal changes in renewable generation and electricity demand.
Winter (Dec-Feb)
Peak: 284 g @ 02:00 | Trough: 225 g @ 16:00 | Spread: 59 g
Spring (Mar-May)
Peak: 178 g @ 06:00 | Trough: 127 g @ 16:00 | Spread: 51 g
Summer (Jun-Aug)
Peak: 276 g @ 06:00 | Trough: 142 g @ 15:00 | Spread: 135 g
Fall (Sep-Nov)
Peak: 316 g @ 01:00 | Trough: 249 g @ 15:00 | Spread: 67 g
Summer offers the lowest carbon intensity, with midday troughs reaching 142 gCO₂/kWh—37% lower than winter. Scheduling flexible loads during seasonal low-carbon windows maximizes emission reductions.
5.7 Carbon Intensity Distribution (Hourly)
Notable monthly evolutions
Change: -26% vs Apr 2024
Change: -39% vs May 2024
876 hours with both low price (<€84/MWh) and low carbon intensity (<156 gCO₂eq/kWh).
5.8 Multi-Level Carbon Intensity Heatmap
Carbon Intensity Heatmap
gCO₂eq/kWh
hourly range: 46-523
Yearly
Monthly
Daily
Hourly
6. Renewable & Carbon-Free Energy (Flow-Traced)
Includes electricity exchanged with neighboring grids
6.1 Days Above Thresholds
Days with carbon-free share above threshold
| Threshold | 2024 | 2025 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≥50% carbon-free | 313 | 277 | -36 |
| ≥60% carbon-free | 171 | 169 | -2 |
| ≥70% carbon-free | 25 | 56 | +31 |
6.2 Hours Above Thresholds
Hours with carbon-free share above threshold
| Threshold | 2024 | 2025 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≥50% carbon-free | 7,139 | 6,242 | -897 |
| ≥60% carbon-free | 4,017 | 4,007 | -10 |
| ≥70% carbon-free | 998 | 1,483 | +485 |
6.3 Multi-Level Carbon-Free % Heatmap
Carbon-Free % Heatmap
%
hourly range: 35-97
Yearly
Monthly
Daily
Hourly
