Electricity Grid Review 2025: Belgium

January 1 - December 31, 2024 vs 2025

Data coverage: 366 days (2024), 365 days (2025)

1. Electricity Price (Day-Ahead, EUR/MWh)

Mean 2024

€70.9

Mean 2025

€82.5

+€11.6

Monthly Average Day-Ahead Price

EUR/MWh

20242025

Price-Carbon Correlation

Correlation coefficient: -0.65 (2024), -0.80 (2025). Strong negative correlation - higher renewable generation = lower prices, reflecting the merit order effect.

1.1 Daily Price Extremes

Based on daily average prices

Metric	2024	2025
Highest Daily Avg	€290.8 (Dec 12, 2024)	€217.8 (Jan 20, 2025)
Lowest Daily Avg	€-17.5 (Jul 06, 2024)	€-16.7 (May 11, 2025)
Negative Price Days	3	1
Negative Price Hours	404	519

1.2 Hourly Price Extremes

Metric	2024	2025
Highest Price	€565.5 (Dec 12, 2024 16:00)	€517.6 (Jul 1, 2025 18:00)
Lowest Price	€-140.0 (Jul 6, 2024 13:00)	€-462.3 (May 11, 2025 11:00)

1.3 Days by Price Range

Based on daily average prices

Range (€/MWh)	2024	2025	Δ
€0-50	85	48	-37
€51-100	225	230	+5
€101-150	51	75	+24
€151-200	3	11	+8
€201+	2	1	-1

1.4 Hours by Price Range

Based on hourly prices

Range (€/MWh)	2024	2025	Δ
Negative	404	519	+115
€0-50	1,893	1,141	-752
€51-100	4,624	4,139	-485
€101-150	1,635	2,457	+822
€151-200	118	374	+256
€201+	57	74	+17

1.5 Average Price by Hour of Day

2025 Average Price by Hour

€/MWh

1.6 Price Distribution (Hourly)

Price Distribution

Number of hours at each level

20242025

Negative Price Events

519 hours with negative prices across 103 days. Most negative: €-462.3/MWh.

Intraday Price Volatility

Average daily price swing: €111/MWh. Maximum single-day swing was €589/MWh on 2025-05-11 (low: €-462, high: €127).

Notable monthly evolutions

⚠️ Feb 2025: Electricity prices were 108% higher than Feb 2024

Change: +108% vs 2024

1.7 Multi-Level Price Heatmap

Price Heatmap

€/MWh

82.6 €/MWh yearly avg

hourly range: -462-518

Yearly

Monthly

Daily

Hourly

600

175

-250

2. Load

Load 2024

80.8 TWh

Load 2025

80.0 TWh

-1.0%

Production 2024

70.5 TWh

Production 2025

67.3 TWh

-4.6%

2.1 Monthly Load

Monthly Consumption vs Production

TWh per month

Consumption 2024Consumption 2025Production 2024Production 2025

2.2 Average Load by Hour of Day

10.35.20

00:0006:0012:0018:0023:00

Load Pattern

Peak demand at 10:00 (10.3 GW). Minimum at 02:00 (7.5 GW).

2.3 Weekday vs Weekend

Weekday Average

9.4 GW

Weekend Average

8.4 GW

2.4 Net Load Pattern (Duck Curve)

Net Load Pattern (excl. Solar & Wind)

GW

Solar Integration Challenge

Evening ramp of 2.6 GW from belly (12:00) to evening peak (18:00). This requires flexible dispatchable generation or storage to meet rapidly increasing demand as solar output decreases.

2.5 Seasonal Net Load Patterns

The duck curve shape varies significantly by season due to changes in solar intensity and heating/cooling demand patterns.

Winter (Dec-Feb)

Winter (Dec-Feb) Net Load Pattern

GW

Belly: 6.5 GW @ 02:00 | Peak: 9.1 GW @ 17:00 | Ramp: 2.6 GW

Spring (Mar-May)

Spring (Mar-May) Net Load Pattern

GW

Belly: 4.0 GW @ 12:00 | Peak: 7.8 GW @ 18:00 | Ramp: 3.8 GW

Summer (Jun-Aug)

Summer (Jun-Aug) Net Load Pattern

GW

Belly: 3.5 GW @ 12:00 | Peak: 6.8 GW @ 19:00 | Ramp: 3.3 GW

Fall (Sep-Nov)

Fall (Sep-Nov) Net Load Pattern

GW

Belly: 5.3 GW @ 11:00 | Peak: 7.8 GW @ 17:00 | Ramp: 2.5 GW

Seasonal Comparison

Evening ramps are similar across seasons: winter 2.6 GW, summer 3.3 GW. The grid faces consistent ramping challenges year-round.

2.6 Peak & Minimum Demand Records (2025)

Rank	Highest Load	Date	Lowest Load	Date
1	13.2 GW	2025-02-18 09:00	2.7 GW	2025-08-17 03:00
2	13.2 GW	2025-02-18 10:00	2.8 GW	2025-08-17 02:00
3	13.1 GW	2025-02-17 09:00	2.9 GW	2025-08-25 02:00

3. Production-Based vs Flow-Traced Carbon Intensity (gCO₂eq/kWh)

Key Insight

Production-based carbon intensity is 3.0g higher than flow-traced carbon intensity in 2024 (3.4g in 2025). This means Belgium's imports are cleaner than domestic production, lowering the carbon footprint of consumed electricity.

Production-Based 2024

156.1 g

Production-Based 2025

185.1 g

+29.0

Flow-Traced 2024

153.2 g

Flow-Traced 2025

181.7 g

+28.5

3.1 Monthly Production Mix

Production Mix by Month

GWh per month by source

2024: left bars2025: right bars

Nuclear

Hydro

Wind

Solar

Biomass

Gas

Coal

Oil

Hydro Storage

Battery

3.2 Production Mix (Domestic Generation)

2024 Production

46%

19%

17%

13%

4%

2025 Production

37%

21%

20%

17%

5%

3.3 Flow-Traced Power Mix

2024 Flow-Traced

44%

19%

17%

11%

2025 Flow-Traced

36%

21%

20%

14%

5%

Nuclear

Hydro

Wind

Solar

Biomass

Gas

Coal

Oil

Hydro Storage

Battery

3.5 Power Mix Comparison

Production vs Flow-Traced consumption by source

Source	Prod 2024	Flow-traced 2024	Prod 2025	Flow-traced 2025
Nuclear	45.9%	44.3%	37.1% (-8.8pp)	36.1% (-8.2pp)
Gas	17.3%	16.9%	20.7% (+3.4pp)	20.5% (+3.6pp)
Wind	19.4%	18.7%	19.9% (+0.5pp)	19.8% (+1.1pp)
Solar	12.9%	10.8%	16.7% (+3.8pp)	14.2% (+3.4pp)
Biomass	4.2%	3.9%	4.7% (+0.5pp)	4.5% (+0.6pp)
Hydro	0.4%	2.7%	0.2% (-0.2pp)	1.8% (-0.9pp)
Coal	0.0%	1.1%	0.0% (+0.0pp)	1.3% (+0.2pp)
Hydro Storage	0.0%	1.5%	0.1% (+0.1pp)	1.3% (-0.2pp)
Battery	0.0%	0.0%	0.5% (+0.5pp)	0.3% (+0.3pp)
Oil	0.0%	0.1%	0.0% (+0.0pp)	0.0% (-0.1pp)

3.6 Key Trend

Nuclear Share (Flow-Traced)

Belgium's electricity consumption is led by ~36.1% nuclear. Gas saw the biggest growth from 16.9% to 20.5%.

4. Cross-Border Electricity Flows

Total Exports 2025

11.20 TWh

-20.8%

Total Imports 2025

23.88 TWh

-3.9%

Net Position 2025

-12.68 TWh

Belgium: Net Electricity Importer

Belgium imported a net 12.68 TWh in 2025.

4.1 2025 Gross Exports (Belgium → Neighbor)

Total electricity exported to each country — with average carbon intensity

4.52 TWh

181g

3.78 TWh

162g

1.87 TWh

183g

1.47 TWh

173g

0.49 TWh

140g

4.2 2025 Gross Imports (Neighbor → Belgium)

Total electricity imported from each country — with average carbon intensity

10.45 TWh

29g

9.82 TWh

286g

1.64 TWh

180g

1.60 TWh

292g

0.12 TWh

223g

4.3 Net Position by Neighbor (2025)

Neighbor	Net (TWh)	Direction
DE	+2.92	Net Exporter
GB	+2.14	Net Exporter
LU	+1.75	Net Exporter
FR	-8.98	Net Importer
NL	-9.33	Net Importer

Positive = Belgium is net exporter to that neighbor. Negative = Belgium is net importer from that neighbor.

4.4 Flow Pattern by Hour of Day

Cross-Border Flow Pattern by Hour

MW (positive = export, negative = import)

Net ExportNet Import

Cross-Border Flow Timing

Peak imports at 06:00 (1.9 GW avg).

5. Carbon Intensity (gCO₂eq/kWh)

Mean 2024

153.2 g

Mean 2025

181.7 g

+28.5

Monthly Average Carbon Intensity

gCO₂eq/kWh (flow-traced)

20242025

5.1 Daily Records

Metric	2024	2025
Lowest Carbon Intensity	82.4 g (May 12, 2024)	86.5 g (Sep 15, 2025)
Lowest Fossil %	10.5% (May 12, 2024)	9.8% (Sep 15, 2025)
Highest Carbon Intensity	343.9 g (Nov 08, 2024)	316.7 g (Dec 13, 2025)
Highest Fossil %	58.8% (Nov 08, 2024)	53.7% (Dec 13, 2025)

5.2 Hourly Records

Metric	2024	2025
Lowest Carbon Intensity	51.7 g (Sep 8, 2024 07:00)	61.5 g (Jun 10, 2025 09:00)
Highest Carbon Intensity	380.2 g (Nov 8, 2024 20:00)	376.1 g (Oct 8, 2025 03:00)

5.3 Days Below Thresholds

Threshold	2024	2025	Δ
< 100 gCO₂eq/kWh	43	8	-35
< 200 gCO₂eq/kWh	306	245	-61
< 300 gCO₂eq/kWh	358	357	-1

5.4 Hours Below Thresholds

Threshold	2024	2025	Δ
< 100 gCO₂eq/kWh	1,637	945	-692
< 200 gCO₂eq/kWh	7,171	5,504	-1667
< 300 gCO₂eq/kWh	8,529	8,239	-290

5.5 Average Carbon Intensity by Hour of Day

2025 Average Carbon Intensity by Hour

gCO₂eq/kWh

5.6 Seasonal Carbon Intensity Patterns

Carbon intensity daily patterns shift with seasonal changes in renewable generation and electricity demand.

Winter (Dec-Feb)

Winter (Dec-Feb) Carbon Intensity

gCO₂eq/kWh

Peak: 232 g @ 18:00 | Trough: 189 g @ 12:00 | Spread: 43 g

Spring (Mar-May)

Spring (Mar-May) Carbon Intensity

gCO₂eq/kWh

Peak: 223 g @ 20:00 | Trough: 113 g @ 11:00 | Spread: 110 g

Summer (Jun-Aug)

Summer (Jun-Aug) Carbon Intensity

gCO₂eq/kWh

Peak: 216 g @ 20:00 | Trough: 104 g @ 12:00 | Spread: 111 g

Fall (Sep-Nov)

Fall (Sep-Nov) Carbon Intensity

gCO₂eq/kWh

Peak: 202 g @ 18:00 | Trough: 138 g @ 11:00 | Spread: 64 g

Seasonal Comparison

Summer offers the lowest carbon intensity, with midday troughs reaching 104 gCO₂/kWh—45% lower than winter. Scheduling flexible loads during seasonal low-carbon windows maximizes emission reductions.

5.7 Carbon Intensity Distribution (Hourly)

Carbon Intensity Distribution

Number of hours at each level

20242025

Notable monthly evolutions

ℹ️ Feb 2025: Carbon intensity was 48% higher in Feb

Change: +48% vs Feb 2024

ℹ️ Apr 2025: Carbon intensity was 41% higher in Apr

Change: +41% vs Apr 2024

ℹ️ Jul 2025: Carbon intensity was 62% higher in Jul

Change: +62% vs Jul 2024

ℹ️ Aug 2025: Carbon intensity was 40% higher in Aug

Change: +40% vs Aug 2024

ℹ️ Oct 2025: Carbon intensity was 24% higher in Oct

Change: +24% vs Oct 2024

Golden Hours

1,636 hours with both low price (<€62/MWh) and low carbon intensity (<119 gCO₂eq/kWh).

5.8 Multi-Level Carbon Intensity Heatmap

Carbon Intensity Heatmap

gCO₂eq/kWh

181.7 gCO₂eq/kWh yearly avg

hourly range: 62-376

Yearly

Monthly

Daily

Hourly

1200

600

0

6. Renewable & Carbon-Free Energy (Flow-Traced)

Includes electricity exchanged with neighboring grids

Renewable 2024

35.3%

Renewable 2025

38.8%

+3.5pp

Carbon-Free 2024

76.9%

Carbon-Free 2025

72.3%

-4.6pp

Monthly Carbon-Free Share

% of consumption (renewable + nuclear)

20242025

6.1 Days Above Thresholds

Days with carbon-free share above threshold

Threshold	2024	2025	Δ
≥50% carbon-free	22	61	+39
≥60% carbon-free	0	5	+5
≥70% carbon-free	0	1	+1

6.2 Hours Above Thresholds

Hours with carbon-free share above threshold

Threshold	2024	2025	Δ
≥50% carbon-free	1,382	2,480	+1,098
≥60% carbon-free	292	1,164	+872
≥70% carbon-free	20	197	+177

6.3 Multi-Level Carbon-Free % Heatmap

Carbon-Free % Heatmap

72.3 % yearly avg

hourly range: 35-94

Yearly

Monthly

Daily

Hourly

100

50

0